Needless to point out that the election-related frenzy has been missing this time around, though this cycle is messier than 2013. Exactly why, and whether this assertion is even correct in the age of muzzled media, is perhaps a moot point at this stage. What is worrisome is anecdotal evidence suggesting that the electorate may be too fatigued already from the endless seasons of political dramas continuing since the great dharna four summers ago.
If the people really want some semblance of political stability post-July 25 elections, then the leading contenders for the top job have a reason to feel despondent, for a variety of complex issues await whosoever forms the government at the center next.
On the political front, the next government is expected to show a big heart and pledge to work for the interest of all Pakistanis, not just those who voted for the majority. While political magnanimity can reduce some political polarization, solving the Nawaz question will be difficult, though. If the PML-N wins, Shahbaz will find it awkward to be the PM while his brother, a former three-time PM himself, continues his sentence in jail. If the PTI comes on top, the victim persona being built around Nawaz will haunt Khan’s government.
In the economic arena, the runaway twin-deficits would restrict the new government’s options to implement development priorities. The inevitability of an IMF bailout – which will likely usher in another round of austerity for at least two to three years – will confront the burning need to prime the pump and create one million+ new jobs p.a.
To boost dollar reserves, other than heavy reliance on multilateral and/or commercial loans, there is no magic trick to give a short-term boost to exports, FDI or remittances. Given rampant allegations of pre-poll rigging to favour one party at the expense of another, it looks likely that the next government will face a crisis of legitimacy early on. So, political capital will be in short to supply. The judiciary’s economic activism will make decision-making more complicated.
When it comes to reforming big-ticket agenda items like tax administration, civil services, regulatory bodies, and public-sector enterprises, the convoluted political economy may again gum up a reformist push. With little political available capital, it will be difficult to create fiscal space in the next NFC Award to adequately fund the accounts of debt, defense and development.
It’s anybody’s guess if the new government will make a play to reclaim the civilian space in the foreign-policy domain. Beware; any diplomatic setbacks will only be the civilians to take. The most immediate challenge is compliance with the FATF wishlist – an issue on which the clock is already ticking. In that context, improving the US-Pak bilateral in the context of the Afghan end-game will be critical for the next government to regain Western support.
Unlike 2013, when energy shortages were rampant and terrorism incidents frequent, 2018 presents different kinds of challenge. The last thing the country needs right now is the next government having to face a crisis of legitimacy as to whether its mandate is real. Therefore, it is imperative to have a peaceful and legitimate transfer of democratic power. A higher voter turnout can help in that regard.
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