Pakistan Market Strategy report predicts PTI will win elections

As the highly anticipated general elections approach, a Switzerland-based multinational investment bank has published a report in which it has predicted that Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) will win the polls.

The bank, Credit Suisse, in its detailed report 'Pakistan Market Strategy', has given the details of the elections scenarios and possibility of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf forming a government through coalition and alliance. Here are the election scenarios:

PTI-led coalition with MQM, PSP and others

The report expects the PTI to bag 92 seats (34pc) in the National Assembly and eye a 60pc probability of the party forming a coalition government. PTI-led coalition would improve investment flows due to the likelihood of tax reforms, curbing SOE losses and plugging energy sector loopholes

In this event, Credit Suisse predicts market to boost by 8-10pc post elections. “Beyond this, the PTI would need to take concrete measures on taxation and institutional reforms in the first 100 days of its tenure, to maintain the confidence of markets,” stated the report.

PTI-led setup with PPP, MQM, PSP and others

In this case PTI chairman Imran Khan may have to look towards the Pakistan Peoples Party to shore up the numbers, but the odds of this are low that is 15pc. This would be negative for the economy as it will lead to unclear economic policies, questions on sustainability of coalition and compromises on tax reforms and privatisation

PML-N led alliance with PPP, religious parties and independent candidates

Lastly, in the third case PML-N can secure 73 seats (27pc) and in the event that the PTI fails to stitch together an alliance, the party can put forward its own coalition that has a probability of 25pc, stated the report.

This outcome would be beneficial to the economy due to the continuation of pro-business policies with emphasis on infrastructure and energy sectors. Meanwhile, there will be slow progress on tax reforms and privatisation due to lack of consensus