NEW YORK: US natural gas futures were little changed on Friday as bullish forecasts for hotter weather over the next two weeks than previously expected offset bearish forecasts for output to reach a record high, lower flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and ample amounts of gas in storage.
Front-month gas futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 1.1 cents, or 0.4percent, to settle at USD2.747 per million British thermal units (mmBtu).
That put the contract down for a sixth week in a row for the first time since December 2023, falling about 15percent during that time. It also put the front-month down about 17percent so far in July after losing less than 1percent in June.
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 110.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 110.0 bcfd in June and the monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Near-record output and mild spring weather have allowed energy firms to keep the amount of gas in inventory higher than the five-year (2021-2025) average since March.
Now, as they wait for next Thursday’s weekly federal inventory report, analysts projected the amount of gas in storage would rise to 6.6percent above normal during the week ended July 31, up from 6.4percent above normal during the previous week.
That amount of gas in inventory has remained in surplus despite weeks of above-normal temperatures so far this summer.
Meteorologists forecast the weather would remain mostly warmer than normal through August 15, forcing power generators to continue burning lots of gas to keep air conditioners humming. About 40percent of US power generation comes from gas-fired plants.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 111.8 bcfd this week to 112.2 bcfd next week and 112.8 bcfd in two weeks.
The forecasts for this week and next were similar to LSEG’s outlook on Thursday. Average gas flows to the nine big US LNG export plants eased to 17.2 bcfd so far in July due in part to maintenance at several facilities, including Freeport LNG’s 2.4-bcfd plant in Texas.
That is down from an average of 17.4 bcfd in June and a monthly record high of 18.8 bcfd in April.
The US became the world’s biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more low-cost US gas.
Global gas prices have spiked in recent years primarily due to supply disruptions linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the US-Israeli war with Iran this year.
Around the world, gas was trading around USD20 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and USD21 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
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