Record wave of IPO lock-up shares to hit Hong Kong market

HONG KONG: Shares in some of Hong Kong’s hottest new listings are set to hit the market this week ​in an unprecedented wave of lock-up expirations, which brokers ‌say could create an overhang on the city’s already struggling stock market.

Knowledge Atlas Technology  will see 25.6 million shares freed from a six-month cornerstone ​investor lock-up on Wednesday, nearly 6% of its outstanding ​shares. The Chinese AI developer’s stock price has surged ⁠more than 1,200% since listing.

MiniMax and Shanghai Iluvatar CoreX ​Semiconductor are also among the six companies facing expirations this week, ​with 45% and 4.3% of their respective outstanding shares set to be unlocked.

The eye-catching returns of new listings could further fuel profit-taking pressure. The ​average first-day return of Hong Kong IPOs in the first ​half of 2026 was 61%, according to EY, compared with a sluggish broader ‌market.

Hong ⁠Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index is down 8.9% this year.

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Secondary selling pressure will be most concentrated in July and September, analysts at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note. “These events can create ​liquidity headwinds even ​when fundamentals ⁠remain intact,” which they said was one of the key reasons for the bank to remain ​cautious on the Hong Kong market in the ​near term.

Goldman ⁠Sachs estimated that $274 billion worth of locked-up shares will be released into the Hong Kong market over the next 12 months, ⁠a ​record-high volume.

Historically, prices dip 4% to 7% ​within three to six months of release, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a ​note.