KARACHI: Pakistan is likely to experience a split monsoon this year, with hot and dry conditions expected in most plains and heavier rainfall forecast for the northern highlands, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said on Tuesday.
According to the forecast, temperatures across the country will remain warmer than usual throughout the summer, regardless of region. However, rainfall patterns will vary sharply between the plains and the mountains.
In the agricultural plains of Punjab, Sindh, Balochistan and southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the coming months are expected to be hotter and drier than normal. Rainfall in these areas is likely to stay below average, while daytime temperatures may rise above seasonal levels. Weather officials warned that prolonged dry conditions could add pressure on agriculture, water resources and daily life.
In contrast, the northern mountainous regions — including Gilgit-Baltistan, the Northern Areas and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa — are expected to receive slightly above-normal rainfall. Despite the increased rain, temperatures there will also remain higher than in previous years, making the weather feel more humid and uncomfortable.
The Met officials say this unusual pattern is being caused by a major shift in wind systems. Normally, winds over Pakistan blow from the west and northwest. The monsoon begins only when these winds reverse direction.
At present, this reversal is under way. Winds are now blowing in from the east, northeast and southeast, bringing large amounts of moisture into the country. This change is already making the air feel hot and sticky, a common sign that the monsoon is approaching.
However, the moisture is not spreading evenly. While the northern highlands are receiving most of the rain-bearing systems, the eastern and southern plains are largely missing out, resulting in dry lowlands and wetter mountains.
The official start of the monsoon season is expected in the first week of July. At that time, a cooler weather system moving in from the west is likely to collide with hot, moisture-filled winds coming from the Bay of Bengal.
This interaction is expected to formally trigger the 2026 monsoon across Pakistan. Once it begins, the split pattern will become clearer — with widespread heat across the country, but meaningful rainfall mainly confined to the northern regions, the Met added.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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