Weekly Cotton Review: Prices in Sindh fall between Rs17,200/maund and Rs17,500/maund

KARACHI: Pakistan’s cotton market experienced a notable decline this week as cotton prices in Sindh fell to between 17,200 and 17,500 rupees per maund. Seed cotton rates also recorded a considerable drop on a per 40 kilogram basis, mirroring a broader bearish trend observed simultaneously in the New York cotton market.

Trading activity across the country remained severely restricted during the week, with business operations limited to only four days owing to the Muharram ul Haram holidays. The shortened trading week prevented market activity from reaching its usual volume and momentum.

The Federal Board of Revenue escalated its oversight of the textile sector this week by issuing a formal ultimatum to textile mills, requiring them to install surveillance cameras entirely at their own cost. While authorities have framed the directive as a transparency measure aimed at strengthening tax compliance, the order has been met with notable unease among industry stakeholders.

Cotton production figures have continued to raise serious alarms across the agricultural sector. The encroachment of sugar mills into regions traditionally devoted to cotton cultivation has caused a steady and worrying contraction in cotton crop areas. Ehsan-ul-Haq, Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, issued a stark warning this week, stating that cotton cultivation has declined to record lows and that the country should brace for a sharp increase in cotton imports as a direct consequence. He cautioned that this growing import dependency would place mounting pressure on Pakistan’s already strained foreign exchange reserves. Industry sources have also called upon APTMA to take a more proactive role in reversing the decline in cotton output.

The long-standing dispute over the illegal occupation of the Karachi Cotton Exchange Building resurfaced prominently this week. Leading industry bodies including APTMA, PCGA, PCBA, FPCCI, and KCCI jointly submitted formal letters urging the Federal Investigation Agency to take immediate action and vacate the building without further delay. The occupation has remained a persistent grievance within the cotton industry for an extended period.

Amid the week’s otherwise sobering developments, APTMA and PCGA signed a Memorandum of Understanding on the Cotton Contract, a move that has drawn broad appreciation from industry circles as a meaningful and constructive step forward.

Bearish trends continued to grip the local cotton market this week, with trading activity limited to just four days due to the two-day public holiday observed on account of Muharram ul Haraam. Despite the shortened trading week, business volumes remained relatively healthy, supported by an increase in the supply of seed cotton (phutti), which prompted additional ginning factories to resume operations across the country.

Cotton prices recorded a significant decline of Rs 1,500 to Rs 2,000 per maund during the week, while seed cotton prices fell by Rs 1,000 to Rs 1,200 per 40 kilograms. The spot rate also dropped by Rs 1,000 per maund, closing the week at Rs 18,000 per maund.

The price decline initially encouraged textile mills to step up their purchases, but the market was jolted when a ginning factory in Tando Adam offloaded 400 bales of cotton at a sharply reduced rate of Rs 17,300 per maund. This was followed by further transactions at Rs 17,200 per maund, triggering significant market turbulence. Other mills quickly revised their buying offers downward in response, however, ginners refused to sell at such reduced rates, which caused trading activity to dry up considerably. Cotton farmers and seed cotton traders also declined to sell their produce at the prevailing low prices, reinforcing the market stalemate. Trading remained completely frozen during the two-day Muharram holiday.

On the agricultural front, cotton production in Sindh is currently reported to be on a relatively positive trajectory, though farmers have raised serious concerns over an acute shortage of water and the urgent need for rainfall. Any further delay in rains is expected to have an adverse impact on the standing cotton crop. In Punjab, the situation is more troubling, as the province has failed to meet its cotton production target, making it unlikely that the national crop target will be achieved this season.

Provincially, cotton prices in Sindh ranged between Rs 17,200 and Rs 17,800 per maund depending on delivery dates, with seed cotton trading at Rs 7,500 to Rs 8,500 per 40 kilograms. In Punjab, cotton was priced between Rs 17,800 and Rs 18,000 per maund, while seed cotton fetched Rs 8,000 to Rs 8,300 per 40 kilograms. Balochistan recorded cotton prices in the range of Rs 17,300 to Rs 17,500 per maund, with seed cotton trading at Rs 8,000 to Rs 8,500 per 40 kilograms. Prices of cottonseed, cottonseed cake, and cottonseed oil also registered a notable decline during the week.

Naseem Usman, Chairman of the Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum, has reported that international cotton prices continued to decline during the latest trading period. New York cotton futures were quoted at between 76 and 78 US cents per pound.

According to the weekly export and sales report released by the United States Department of Agriculture, total cotton sales for the 2025–26 crop year reached 83,900 bales. Vietnam led all purchasing nations by procuring 31,300 bales, followed by India in second place with 14,300 bales and Bangladesh in third with 14,200 bales.

For the 2026–27 crop year, sales totalled 67,100 bales. China topped the buyers’ list with 13,500 bales, while Guatemala ranked second with 12,800 bales and Vietnam came in third with 10,600 bales.

On the export side, total shipments amounted to 302,000 bales. Vietnam once again led as the largest importer, receiving 102,800 bales. Pakistan ranked second by importing 48,600 bales, while Bangladesh followed in third place with 25,900 bales imported during the same period.

Cotton crop production in Pakistan has been declining year after year, with one of the primary reasons being the establishment of sugar mills in traditional cotton-growing regions. If this trend continues, the cotton crop will not merely decrease but could disappear entirely. When farmers receive higher prices for sugarcane compared to raw cotton, they will naturally shift toward cultivating sugarcane instead.

The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) has issued an ultimatum to textile mills**, directing them to install surveillance cameras on their premises. According to the FBR, cameras will be mandatory at all textile mills from July 1st, and 180 mill owners have been issued a final warning. The FBR has clarified that mills will bear the installation costs themselves, and any mill failing to comply will be considered non-operational. Sources indicate that the FBR has already installed cameras at sugar, cement, and fertilizer factories.

Concerns over Pakistan’s falling cotton output are entirely valid, and the management, transparency, and technical standards of the National Coordinated Varietal Trials (NCVT) also warrant serious discussion. However, alongside this debate, a fundamental question arises: what practical role has the textile industry itself, particularly APTMA, played over the past decade in reviving cotton production?

Pakistan’s largest industrial lobby has yet to demonstrate meaningful investment in cotton farmers, cotton research, or the broader cotton economy. The sugar industry presents a stark contrast. Sugar mills maintain direct engagement with farmers, providing seeds, technical guidance, field visits, and yield-improvement programs, because their industrial future is directly tied to sugarcane production. By comparison, the textile industry has no comparable structured and effective engagement with cotton farmers that can be held up as an example. It remains unclear how many districts have seen APTMA launch training programs, demonstration plots, technology transfer initiatives, or cost-reduction schemes for cotton growers.

If cotton is truly the lifeline of the textile industry, then another legitimate question follows: what role has the industry played in financially strengthening cotton research institutions? For years, cotton cess matters have remained mired in disputes, while research institutions struggle with financial constraints, staff shortages, and a lack of resources. On one hand, the industry demands world-class research and modern seed varieties; on the other, there is no serious progress toward strengthening the financial mechanisms needed to fund that very research.

A review of APTMA’s public statements and demands reveals a consistent focus on cheap electricity, energy subsidies, export incentives, tax exemptions, and financial relief packages. While these demands may be valid from an industry standpoint, the question remains: on those same forums, how often did APTMA effectively advocate for supportive agricultural policies for cotton farmers, research funding, quality seed supply, better water management, or agricultural reforms?

The revival of cotton will not come through photographs, press tours, and press statements.

It requires genuine investment in research, practical partnerships with farmers, support for fair policies, and the prioritization of national interest over commercial gain. Until that happens, those who demand accountability from others must also answer for their own role in the cotton crisis and explain what they have actually done to bring about its recovery.

Meanwhile, APTMA and the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) have jointly demanded the immediate restoration of possession of the Cotton Exchange Building in Karachi to the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) and its tenants.

Pakistan’s cotton sector is facing a significant crisis as Punjab records a historic shortfall in cotton cultivation against its annual target, while industry bodies raise alarms over regulatory and infrastructural disruptions threatening the broader textile economy.

According to Chairman of the Cotton Ginners Forum, Ehsan ul Haq, the Punjab government had set a cultivation target of 3.2 million acres for the Cotton Year 2026-27. However, final figures released by the Punjab Agriculture Department reveal that only 2.614 million acres were actually cultivated across the province this year — a shortfall of 586,000 acres, representing an 18 percent deficit against the set target. Ehsan ul Haq attributed this record decline in cotton cultivation to harsh weather conditions and the establishment of new sugar mills along the Punjab-Sindh border, which have drawn farmers away from cotton farming.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026