ISLAMABAD: Former Defence and Foreign Minister and senior PML-N leader Engr. Khurram Dastgir Khan has expressed concern that several key obstacles, such as the unresolved Jammu and Kashmir dispute, the reciprocal allegations of cross-border terrorism, deep-seated domestic nationalism in India, nuclear dilemma, and friction over the Indus Water Treaty, could again lock Pakistan and India in a military confrontation.
He specifically pointed towards mounting tensions over water-sharing mechanisms as the potential source of conflict.
Khurram Dastagir stated this while speaking at a seminar titled “Decoding the Future Trajectory of Pakistan-India Relations”, hosted by the India Study Centre at the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI) on Tuesday.
He indicated three strengths that Pakistan has carved out of the US-Iran conflict in recent months, including goodwill from the United States, international legitimacy, and the ability to conduct complex diplomacy at international fronts.
Other speakers included Ambassador Khalid Mahmood, Chairman ISSI; Ambassador Abdul Basit, Pakistan’s Former High Commissioner to India; Dr Manzoor Ahmed, Former Ambassador to the WTO; Dr. Mujeeb Afzal, Assistant Professor, School of Politics and IR, Quaid-e-Azam University; and Dr. Khurram Abbas, Director ISC at ISSI.
Ambassador Khalid Mahmood noted that the history of Pakistan-India relations has remained a mix of conciliatory and confrontational approaches. Citing several key figures from the Indian policy elite, he observed that New Delhi’s ambition to globally ‘isolate’ Pakistan had actually backfired, and voices are emerging to revisit its Pakistan strategy. He, however, warned that India’s military leadership still maintains a threatening and rhetorical tone towards Pakistan. Dr Khurram Abbas labelled the India-Pakistan ties as the most-observed bilateral ties globally, the trajectory of which impacts the course of security and stability in South Asia and beyond.
Ambassador Abdul Basit, in his address, indicated that unlike history, the two countries seemed short of ideas to break the stalemate and initiate a constructive engagement. Expressing suspicion over the recent calls for engagement from India, Ambassador Basit pointed out that, from an Indian perspective, this was not a suitable time for a breakthrough with Pakistan. He stressed that Pakistan must prioritise its interests and long-term objectives instead of an open-ended structured dialogue. Ambassador Basit argued that Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) were only useful when a proper mechanism is drawn to discuss the central issues, including Jammu and Kashmir.
Dr. Manzoor Ahmed was of the view that the most haunting casualty of the ongoing crisis between the two countries was that of trade. After banning direct trade with India, Pakistan is forced to rely on indirect routes for Indian products, which consequently exponentially affects Pakistan’s import bill. Citing a World Bank study, Dr. Manzoor Ahmed argued that Pakistan could earn USD 38 billion from its exports to India, after which its overall exports would rise by 80 percent. He called for decoupling trade relations from longstanding contentious issues with New Delhi.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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