‘After Iran, is Turkey Israel’s next target?’

This is apropos a letter to the Editor titled ‘After Iran, is Turkey Israel’s next target?’ carried by the newspaper on Tuesday and yesterday.

Turkey may dominate a conventional confrontation, but Israel may believe that nuclear shadow power gives it the final word. That is why the Turkey-Israel rivalry cannot be judged only by aircraft, tanks, or soldiers. It must be judged by escalation control. Turkey can defeat pressure, but it must avoid giving Israel the pretext to internationalize, nuclearize, or Americanize the conflict.

Many argue that conventional military strength, diplomacy, missile defences, or asymmetric capabilities can compensate for a nuclear imbalance. Yet the modern strategic record suggests that nuclear weapons remain the ultimate deterrent.

Countries that possess a credible nuclear capability are rarely subjected to the kind of existential military pressure faced by states that do not.

More importantly, when rival states both possess nuclear weapons, the risk of total war often declines because the consequences become catastrophic for both sides.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2026