Global temperatures to reach near-record highs in next five years, report finds

GENEVA: Average global temperatures are forecast to reach near-record levels in the next five years, ‌with Arctic temperatures expected to warm faster than other regions, a report by the U.N. weather agency and the UK’s Met Office said on Thursday.

The annual report which gives regional predictions for temperatures and rain predicts that annual global mean near-surface temperatures will range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above ​the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.

“There’s very clear evidence that the climate is warming and that the global average temperature ​is continuing to rise,” Melissa Seabrook, a research scientist at the UK Met Office, told Reuters.

In the ⁠2015 Paris Agreement, governments promised to try to prevent the average global temperature rise from exceeding 1.5C above pre-industrial levels - ​above which severe climate events were seen growing in intensity.

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The report said it is very ​likely that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

It also predicts there will be one year between 2026 and 2030 that average global temperatures will exceed the warmest year on record, ​2024, when they surpassed 1.5C above the pre-industrial era for the first time.

Temporarily crossing the 1.5C threshold does not mean ​the Paris Agreement has failed, as it refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year’s exceedance, Seabrook said, ‌while noting ⁠that as the world gets closer to that threshold, it was increasingly likely to pass it more often.

“The science is very clear that the window to keeping the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees is closing rapidly,” Seabrook added.

More severe weather events

Arctic winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere over the next five years are projected to rise at more than 3-1/2 times ​the global average, reaching around ​2.8°C above the 1991–2020 baseline, ⁠according to the report.

Arctic sea-ice is expected to melt in the month of March over the next half decade in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk.

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Arctic warming could ​also disrupt weather systems and prompt more severe weather events, especially in northern parts of ​the world, Seabrook ⁠said.

Wetter weather in the northern hemisphere over the next five winters is also predicted, as well as wet periods in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel during May-September, while contrastingly dry weather is forecast for this season in the Amazon.

A strong El Nino ⁠is also ​predicted for winter this year, which could persist into 2027, driving up ​global temperatures to potential record-breaking levels due to the heating of the Pacific Ocean, Seabrook said.

El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the ​central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months.