EDITORIAL: April 2026 Update and Outlook, released by the Finance Division by the end of each month, noted large scale manufacturing (LSM) growth July-March 2026 at 5.7 percent (with the March growth cited at 7.3 percent); however, the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) calculated July-March growth at 6.48 percent less than a week later – a discrepancy of 0.78 percent. PBS further noted that while July-March LSM increased by 6.48 percent year-on-year yet it decreased by negative 5.19 percent compared to February, the month before. The Outlook and Update for March and April note that LSM for February was 7 percent rising to 7.3 percent in March.
While the Finance Division is under the administrative control of the Ministry of Finance PBS comes under the control of the Ministry of Planning, Development and Special Initiatives. But the need for data synchronisation between different government agencies to ensure that timely informed policy decisions can be taken cannot be over-emphasized.
Assuming that data manipulation was limited — an assumption that many economists and those operating in the LSM sector may challenge as did the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently by expressing serious concerns at the quality of surveys undertaken by PBS as required under the Fund’s ongoing technical assistance that led to a deferral of the completion date by four months — data suggests that the main contributors to LSM growth in March this year was sugar 384.90 percentage rise and automobiles 61.35 percent growth.
Three observations are in order. First sugar is generally not included in the LSM sector in most countries however with several prominent families in Pakistan having invested in sugar mills (including the Sharifs and the Zardaris) this particular industry has received considerable incentives over time. And in spite of several automobile plants operating in Pakistan today the debate on the very slow indigenisation of car production process continues to this day.
Second, inflation has spiked in Pakistan after the Middle East conflict, like in other countries, especially relating to the petroleum sector and analysts argue that the 3.39 percent growth in this sector may be more indicative of a rise in price as opposed to a rise in output. Additionally, they point to Pakistan relying heavily on imports of petroleum products – a reliance that the PBS should have taken cognizance of prior to citing it as an LSM.
And finally, it is relevant to note that Pakistan’s major export sector, yarn, cloth and garments, registered negative 1.14, positive 0.12 percent and positive 1.79 percent growth, respectively, even though the industry has been lamenting the rise in input costs (due to IMF conditions in the ongoing programme notably contractionary monetary and fiscal policies as well as higher electricity and other input costs), claiming that 150 units have closed down.
To conclude manipulating data does service to no one because it blind-sides policymakers from taking timely decisions; if the objective is to show better performance to the general public than is the case then that goal too does not bear dividends for the simple reason that inflation and employment are two indicators that the public knows instinctively, and favourable government statistics beguile no one.
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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