Iron ore consolidates as investors weigh higher war-induced costs against rising supply

Iron ore prices moved in a tight range on Thursday, as investors weighed higher costs from the prolonged Iran war against the prospects of a growing supply of the key steelmaking ingredient.

The most-traded iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) traded little changed at 785.5 yuan ($115.05) a metric ton, as of 0212 GMT.

The benchmark May iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was 0.18% lower at $107.1 a ton, as of 0102 GMT. It hit the highest level since March 30 at $107.5 earlier in the session.

The Singapore benchmark has stayed well above a key psychological level of $100 for more than six weeks.

Iran said it had captured two container ships seeking to exit the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after firing on them and another vessel, casting clouds on prospects of another round of US-Iran peace talks.

The Iran war has sent energy prices surging, lifting freight and input costs, which have provided some support to iron ore prices, analysts said.

That said, the anticipation of rising supply curbed upside in ore prices.

BHP Group’s third-quarter iron ore output beat expectations, and its resolution on a months-long supply contract dispute with China raised prospects of potentially more shipments to the world’s largest consumer.

Meanwhile, Rio Tinto, the world’s largest iron ore supplier, maintained its 2026 Pilbara iron ore sales forecast at 323 million to 338 million tons while flagging potential supply chain risks due to the Middle East conflict.

Coking coal and coke, other steelmaking ingredients, rose 0.43% and 1.03%, respectively.

Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained ground. Rebar added 0.35%, hot-rolled coil advanced 0.68%, wire rod ticked up 0.61% and stainless steel edged up 0.27%.