UAE non-oil private sector growth slows to near four-year low in March, PMI shows

The United Arab Emirates’ non-oil private sector activity expanded at its weakest pace in nearly four years in March as the Middle East conflict hit demand and disrupted supply chains, a business survey showed on Friday.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global UAE Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 52.9 in March from 55.0 in February, the lowest level since July 2025, although still in growth territory.

Output and new order growth slowed markedly, with the output subindex falling to 54.9 - the softest pace of growth since June 2021 - from February’s 61.8.

Demand growth also softened, with the new orders subindex retreating to 54.5 from 59.5 in February, marking the slowest expansion since August last year.

“Anecdotal comments suggested that sectors such as tourism, retail and logistics were the most affected, whereas segments such as technology and construction signalled a softer, but still notable impact,” said David Owen, senior economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

He added that while the war had taken a toll on the non-oil private sector overall in March, for many firms orders books were resilient and output expanded.

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Supplier delivery times lengthened for the first time since September 2021 after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while backlogs of work increased at the fastest pace so far this year.

Business expectations for the next 12 months fell to their lowest level in just over five years.

The headline PMI in Dubai, the region’s business and tourism hub, fell to 53.2 from 54.6, the weakest improvement in non-oil business conditions for nine months.