Gold set for worst month in more than 17 years as US rate-cut hopes fade
- Spot gold was up 1.5% at $4,578.89 per ounce
- US gold futures for April delivery gained 1.2% to $4,611.30
Gold prices rose on Tuesday on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, but were poised for their worst month in more than 17 years as higher energy prices dimmed hopes for a US interest rate cut this year.
Spot gold was up 1.5% at $4,578.89 per ounce, as of 0235 GMT.
US gold futures for April delivery gained 1.2% to $4,611.30.
The dollar eased, making greenback-denominated commodities more affordable for holders of other currencies.
“Gold prices are bouncing in early Asia-Pacific trade after US President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the US military campaign against Iran… That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.
Trump told aides that he is willing to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and leave a complex operation to reopen it for a later date, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.
“Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk,” said Spivak.
Bullion has fallen more than 13% so far this month, putting it on track for its steepest decline since October 2008, weighed down by a stronger dollar and fading expectations of a US interest rate cut this year.
Prices are still up about 5% for the quarter.
Traders have almost completely priced out any chance of a US Federal Reserve rate cut this year, as higher energy prices threaten to feed into broader inflation.
Gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset.
Before the war in the Middle East erupted, there were expectations of two Fed rate cuts for this year, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the US central bank can wait to see how the Iran war affects the economy and inflation, noting that policymakers typically look through shocks such as those from higher oil prices.
Spot silver rose 3.3% to $72.27 per ounce, spot platinum gained nearly 1% to $1,916.77, and palladium was up 2.3% at $1,437.76.
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