Private credit poses limited systemic risk to broader financial markets despite strains, Barclays says

BENGALURU: Private credit has limited ability to cause significant losses that could hurt the broader financial system, Barclays said on Thursday, despite growing strains on the asset class.

Jitters in private credit have rippled through markets this month, with major US banks tightening lending and funds capping withdrawals as mounting concerns over valuations, transparency and the health of the economy prompted some investors to exit the sector.

Barclays in a note said that most private credit holdings are with long-term institutional investors, such as pensions, endowments, sovereign wealth funds and insurers, whose obligations aren’t easily shaken by short-term market volatility.

At the same time, private credit’s retail exposure has grown but remains concentrated. This combination reduces the risk of sudden, correlated selling pressure that could trigger broader financial contagion, Barclays added. “While the asset class has undoubtedly expanded, increased leverage within the financial system, and become more interconnected, scale alone does not imply systemic risk,” Barclays said.

Shares of alternative asset managers have also come under pressure this year amid growing concerns over the valuations of software companies they own or finance. Barclays says this exposure will test lenders’ underwriting discipline, though any shakeout is likely to unfold slowly through lower payouts, discounted secondary sales and isolated losses rather than an abrupt correction.

“Any assessment of systemic risk must therefore narrow its focus to the segments where leverage, opacity, and borrower cyclicality actually intersect, which we believe is most acute in the USD1.3 trillion of deployed middle market direct lending in the US today,” Barclays said.