Gulf warnings and fears of miscalculation preceded Trump’s pause in Iran showdown

Donald Trump’s abrupt pause in his showdown with Iran followed warnings from Gulf states that the war was veering into a far more perilous phase and rising fears among officials in the region that Washington had misjudged Tehran’s readiness to escalate, regional sources and analysts said.

Gulf Arab states warned him directly that US strikes on Iran’s power plants would trigger Iranian retaliation on their own vital energy and desalination facilities, according to three regional sources who declined to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter.

Trump had threatened to hit Iran’s electricity grid unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which carries a fifth of global energy supplies. But Iran refused to yield, the strait stayed shut, oil markets spiked and global equities fell — exposing the limits of Trump’s leverage.

Iran sent a warning to Gulf capitals, via an Arab intermediary, that any US strike on its power plants would unleash unlimited retaliation, two other regional sources said.

“Trump totally miscalculated when he said ‘you’ve got 48 hours to open the strait’,” said Alan Eyre, a former US diplomat and Iran expert.

“Once it became clear Iran was serious about hitting Gulf energy infrastructure in response, he had to back down.”

Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said Tehran had surprised Trump with its ability to stay in the fight and its willingness to escalate without restraint. “They showed no inhibitions, no restrictions, no holdbacks.”

There was no immediate response to requests for comment for this article from the Iranian government, Gulf Arab states and the US State Department.

Asked for comment, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said President Trump had assessed that the US is close to completing its defined objectives for Operation Epic Fury.

She added: “The President is in close contact with our partners in the Middle East, and the terrorist Iranian regime’s attacks on its neighbours prove how imperative it was that President Trump eliminate this threat to our country and our allies.”

Trump’s pause on strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, the regional sources and analysts say, appeared to be a recognition the war he had threatened to escalate was already slipping beyond his control and its costs now outweighed any political advantage from projecting American strength.

Behind the scenes, efforts to curb wider spillover continued through intermediaries including Pakistan, Turkey and Egypt, as well as Gulf partners unnerved at being drawn into a war they neither chose nor controlled.

Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Centre, said Trump’s pause pointed to two possible trajectories.

One is tactical — buying time to complete deployments, test Iran’s response and issue a final warning before a larger strike. The other is strategic — using de-escalation to prepare the ground for a broader deal, including a reset of the regional security rules of engagement in the Gulf.

In either case, she said, the war has not ended; it has simply been repurposed as leverage.

From the outset, Iran escalated by attacking Gulf infrastructure and shipping, raising the spectre of a prolonged shock to oil, gas, LNG and trade through Hormuz.

Gulf states, Vatanka said, were left paying the highest price. “If I were a Gulf leader, I’d be furious,” he said.

“They were put at enormous risk without their consent, and the damage inflicted in four weeks could take years to undo.”