NEW YORK: US natural gas futures slid about 3percent on Friday on forecasts for mostly mild weather through the rest of March, which should limit heating demand and allow utilities to add gas into storage.
Front-month gas futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 10.2 cents, or 3.2percent, to settle at USD3.131 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). On Thursday, the contract closed at its highest since February 13 for a second day in a row.
For the week, the front-month was down about 2percent after gaining about 11percent last week.
In the US cash market, average prices at the Waha Hub in West Texas remained in negative territory for a record 26 days in a row as pipeline constraints trapped gas in the Permian, the nation’s biggest oil-producing shale basin.
Average gas output in the US Lower 48 states rose to 109.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in March, up from 109.2 bcfd in February, according to data from financial firm LSEG. That compares with a monthly record high of 110.6 bcfd in December 2025.
Energy analysts said mostly mild weather in recent weeks has allowed energy firms to take the somewhat unusual step of injecting gas into storage during the winter heating season in March, boosting stockpiles to near normal levels for the week ended March 13, up from around 1percent below normal for the week ended March 6.
Meteorologists forecast weather across the country will remain mostly near normal through March 28 with colder weather expected next week than this week.
Next week’s cold will likely result in an increase in heating demand, forcing some utilities to again pull gas from storage.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would jump from 112.7 bcfd this week to 124.6 bcfd next week before dropping to 116.8 bcfd in two weeks. The forecast for next week was lower than LSEG’s outlook on Thursday.
Average gas flows to the nine big US liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants slid to 18.3 bcfd so far in March, down from a record 18.7 bcfd in February.
Prices in the US have reacted to the Iran war, but not by nearly as much as elsewhere in the world because America produces all the gas it needs and was already exporting all the LNG it could before the war. So, no matter how high global gas prices go, the US cannot export much more gas.
Since the US and Israel started bombing Iran on February 28, US gas prices have climbed about 10percent versus around 58percent in Europe and 51percent in Asia.
Around the world, gas was trading near USD17 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) benchmark in Europe and USD16 at the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) benchmark in Asia.
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