ISLAMABAD: A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could pose risks to Pakistan’s projected USD 42 billion remittance inflows for the current fiscal year 2025-26, though experts believe the impact may not be immediate.
Several overseas Pakistanis told Business Recorder that their jobs and salaries remain unaffected for now. However, they warned that if conflict persists, smaller companies in the Gulf region may struggle to sustain expatriate employment, potentially leading to job losses and lower remittance flows to Pakistan.
They added that inflation in the region has already started rising during the ongoing tensions, which, if prolonged, could erode their savings as living expenses increase. They further said that tourism industry was badly affected on account and those working for the tourism industry are already feeling the brunt of the conflict.
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Economist and former adviser to the Ministry of Finance Dr Khaqan Najeeb said that while a prolonged Middle East conflict can affect Pakistan’s remittances, but the impact may not be immediate across different sectors.
However, he cautioned that medium-term risks exist. If the conflict affects expatriate employment particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which account for a large share of inflows, remittances would be impacted.
According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) data, workers’ remittances recorded an inflow of USD 3.3 billion in February 2026, reflecting a 5.2 percent increase year-on-year. Cumulatively, remittances reached USD 26.5 billion during July–February fiscal year 2026, marking a 10.5 percent rise compared to USD 24 billion received during the same period last year.
During February, the largest inflows were received from the United Arab Emirates (USD 696.2 million), followed by Saudi Arabia (USD 685.5 million), the United Kingdom (USD 532.0 million) and the United States (USD 319.5 million).
Copyright Business Recorder, 2026
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