Indian shares set for lower open as Middle East conflict dents risk appetite

India’s benchmark indexes are poised to open lower on Monday as escalating Middle East tensions pushed crude prices higher and triggered a flight to safe havens, weighing on overall market sentiment.

The Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,132 points, as of 6:50 a.m. IST, indicating the benchmark Nifty 50 will open below Friday’s close of 25,178.65.

Oil prices surged more than 7% on Monday to their highest level in months as escalating Iran–Israel hostilities stoked concerns about supply disruptions from the Middle East.

Brent crude futures climbed to about $82.40 a barrel, their highest in 14 months, in the first trading after the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend killed Tehran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, jolting markets and deepening uncertainty for the global economy.

Tehran said it has closed navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20% of global oil flows and over 40% of India’s crude imports transit, prompting governments and refiners to assess oil stockpiles.

“Markets are likely to move from earnings-driven to oil-driven trading in the near term as crude remains the key macro variable for Indian equities under the current escalation scenario,” said analysts led by Venkatesh Balasubramaniam of JM Financial.

“Domestic equities are likely to see a negative opening with elevated volatility amid global risk off sentiment as higher crude increases inflation risk and higher inflation pushes bond yields and compresses equity multiples.”

Other Asian markets opened 1.1% lower on the day.

Indian shares fell on Friday, pulling the benchmark indexes to a third consecutive monthly loss as IT stocks slid. The sector logged its worst month since September 2008 in February on fears that artificial intelligence could erode earnings.

Foreign portfolio investors offloaded shares worth 75.36 billion rupees on Friday while domestic institutional investors bought stock worth 122.93 billion rupees, according to NSE provisional data.