Indian top IT firms set for another tepid quarter on weak US demand, client spending

India’s information technology firms are expected to report another muted quarter, as tepid demand in the U.S. and holiday-period client shutdowns continue to weigh on tech spending, nine brokerages said ahead of earnings.

Brokerages expect the top six IT firms by revenue to post about 4% year-on-year revenue growth and a 5% rise in profit for the December quarter on average, reflecting prolonged demand softness, compared with 6.5% revenue growth in the September quarter.

Indian software exporters last reported double-digit revenue growth in the March quarter of 2023, when digital transformation, cloud adoption and remote-work demand surged in the post-pandemic period.

The broader $283 billion Indian IT industry continues to face macro headwinds, including uncertainty over U.S. tariffs, challenges from proposed $100,000 visa fees, and subdued client spending on concerns about growth in the world’s largest economy.

India’s IT companies earn a significant share of their revenue from the United States, making the world’s largest economy crucial for the sector.

Sector bellwether Accenture’s recent earnings beat Wall Street expectations on AI-led demand, though its unchanged growth outlook underscores the cautious near-term environment.

Although India has no pure-play AI firms, IT companies are beginning to shape AI strategies through acquisitions and partnerships. Brokerages expect AI momentum to build over the next six months and demand to pick up into 2026.

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“Clients remain cautious about committing incremental spending to large programs amid macro and tariff uncertainty and a new tech cycle,” said Abhishek Pathak, research analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

U.S. tariff uncertainty, visa worries and weak spending drove record foreign outflows of $8.5 billion from IT stocks in 2025, nearly half of total foreign exits from Indian equities. The Nifty IT index fell 12.6% in 2025, making it the worst-performing sector as Indian markets lagged Asian and emerging-market peers.

Tata Consultancy Services, the country’s largest IT firm, will kick off the earnings season on January 12. Its revenue is expected to rise about 4.2% year-on-year, slower than the 5.6% growth reported last year.

Infosys and HCLTech are forecast to report year-on-year revenue growth of about 8.1% and 4.6%, respectively, compared with 7.6% and 5.1% in the year-ago period.

Most brokerages do not expect HCLTech to upgrade its fiscal 2026 annual revenue forecast of 2%–3%, or Infosys to raise its forecast of 3%–5%.

Earnings across domestic equities are expected to improve in the December quarter on tax cuts, policy easing, stable growth and benign inflation, even as the period remains structurally weak for IT firms.

Fewer working days due to global client holidays weigh on billing and revenue, while brokerages flag margin pressure from furloughs and wage hikes at firms such as TCS and Wipro.

However, resilience in the BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) segment, deal ramp-ups, early signs of artificial intelligence strategy formation and rupee depreciation could offer support by mid-2026, six brokerages said.