Thai rice exports seen falling to 7mn metric tons in 2026

BANGKOK: Thailand’s rice exports are projected to fall to 7 million metric tons next year, with the strong baht making it harder to compete with a surge in supplies from India, the commerce ministry said on Friday.

The baht has gained 10.5% against the dollar so far this year to become Asia’s second-best performing currency.

It has reached its highest level against the greenback in more than four years.

For 2025, rice shipments are projected at 7.88 million to 8 million tons, beating a target of 7.5 million, helped by strong year-end demand, Arada Fuangtong, head of the foreign trade department, told a press conference.

But the volume would still be below the nearly 10 million tons recorded last year.

The decrease was due to abundant output, the release of large amounts of rice stocks by India, and the Philippines suspending rice imports, Arada said.

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“This year’s rice export value has declined due to a sharp drop in global market prices and the impact of the strong baht, she added.

“The strong baht has continued to create problems for rice exports,” she said.

In the first 11 months of 2025, rice shipments dropped 21% year-on-year to 7.3 million tons, with the value down 30.3%.