India bonds fall as investors trim positions with eye on supply-demand balance

MUMBAI: Indian government bonds ended lower on Wednesday, as traders lightened positions ahead of the central bank’s debt purchase a day later and a Friday auction that will reshuffle the balance of supply and demand for debt.

The benchmark 10-year yield ended at 6.5995%, after closing at 6.5745% on Tuesday. Bond yields fall when prices rise.

Despite RBI’s dovish December policy, bond markets have remained under pressure as demand-supply concerns continue to play out, said Upasna Bhardwaj, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank.

“While RBI’s efforts towards a distributed tenure of OMO purchases across the curve has helped calm markets to an extent, the delay in natural pickup in demand by long-end institutional investors, increased FPI outflows and continued pressure on global yields have kept the bond market sentiments sour.”

Foreign investors have sold more than $1 billion worth of bonds on a net basis so far in December.

Earlier this month, the RBI cut rates by 25 basis points and announced infusion of 1.45 trillion rupees via bond buying and FX swap.

Still, yields have witnessed upward pressure as market participants wager the central bank’s rate cut cycle is over.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is set to buy 500 billion Indian rupees ($5.53 billion) of bonds on Thursday, including the former benchmark 6.33% 2035 note.

Last Thursday, the central bank bought a similar quantum of bonds at higher-than-estimated prices, pushing the RBI’s bond-buying for the financial year to a record high and leading to a brief rally.

RATES

India’s overnight index swap rates ended modestly higher, with the spread between the one-year and two-year OIS jumping to the highest since July 2022.

The one-year OIS rate ended at 5.4925%, while the two-year swap rate ended at 5.59%. The five-year OIS rate settled at 5.9475%.