Indian rupee may hover near 90, track subdued Asian FX as Fed decision looms

MUMBAI: The Indian rupee may open slightly weaker on Wednesday, tracking subdued regional peers as investors await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision and equity outflows temper recovery hopes for the unit.

The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 89.92-89.94 range versus the U.S. dollar, having settled at 89.8750 on Tuesday.

Traders reckon the rupee has entered a near-term phase of range-bound trading after falling to an all-time low of 90.42 last week.

“The possibility of a quick, sharp depreciation seems to have diminished for now, but sensitivity to trade-related headlines is expected to remain,” a senior trader at a foreign bank said.

The ongoing stalemate in U.S.-India trade talks has been a persistent sore spot for the rupee, hampering exports to India’s largest market and denting foreign inflows into domestic stocks.

Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Rick Switzer is slated to visit India on December 10-11, as New Delhi looks to reduce punitive tariffs imposed on its goods.

Meanwhile, foreign investors net sold over $300 million of Indian stocks on Tuesday, adding to the near $18 billion worth of outflows over the year so far.

All eyes on fed

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later in the day and investors will parse the U.S. central bank’s policy commentary and future interest rate projections to gauge the path for borrowing costs in the world’s largest economy.

“We are out of consensus and expect more aggressive than expected balance sheet action & less hawkish forward guidance,” analysts at BofA Global Research said.

“Should Fed Chair Powell lean on data dependence in the press conference rather than stressing need for a pause, we expect the market to pull forward pricing for a cut in January.”

Asian currencies and the dollar index were largely muted.