Australia’s wheat production outlook improves as harvest begins

CANBERRA: Analysts have raised their estimates for Australia’s wheat harvest, a Reuters poll showed, as better-than-expected yields in western cropping regions boosted the production outlook despite losses caused by dry conditions in parts of the south.

With harvesting underway and due to run until January, five analysts lifted their estimates by an average of half a million metric tons since late last month.

The median of their estimates was for Australia to produce 35.7 million tons of wheat, which would be the third-biggest harvest on record.

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Australia is one of the world’s biggest exporters of wheat as well as barley, canola and other crops.

Analysts also raised estimates for Australia’s barley harvest by an average of around 400,000 tons. Their canola numbers were little changed.

The median forecasts were for a 15 million-ton barley crop, the largest ever, and a 6.5 million-ton canola crop.

Last year, Australia harvested 34.1 million tons of wheat, 13.3 million tons of barley and 6.4 million tons of canola.

Soil moisture has generally been good or very good through the growing season in much of Western Australia, northern New South Wales and Queensland, but deficient in parts of South Australia, Victoria and southern New South Wales.

Farmers in some southern regions decided in recent weeks to cut crops for fodder, especially after forecast rainfall failed to materialise.

“I’ve trimmed a bit off my wheat numbers for Victoria and parts of South Australia, where there’s been cutting for hay,” said Rod Baker, an analyst at Bendigo Agribusiness Insights.

“But what I’ve taken from there, Western Australia has made up for.”

The Grain Industry Association of Western Australia last week raised its forecast for wheat production in the state by nearly 1 million tons.

Following are analyst estimates for Australia’s harvest in millions of metric tons.