Trump’s gamble

Since Donald Trump assumed office in January 2025, US policy toward China has been a study in contradictions. On some days, he hails China as a great country deserving normal relations with the United States. On others, he brandishes tariffs as weapons, imposing crushing duties on Chinese imports. This oscillation between praise and punishment betrays a failure to grasp the transformation of China. It is no longer the vulnerable power of a decade ago but an ascendant nation, propelled by consistent leadership, unity of purpose, and a relentless focus on rising as a global force.

China’s achievements are undeniable. Over the past decades, it has eliminated mass poverty, built unparalleled infrastructure, and secured dominance over industries that define the modern age. From artificial intelligence and quantum computing to aerospace, electric vehicles, and cyber security,

China sits at the commanding heights of technology. Central to this dominance is its control over rare minerals—the essential inputs for semiconductors, batteries, aircraft, and advanced weaponry. While America was lulled into complacency, financing consumption with printed dollars, China quietly consolidated its grip on global mineral refining, leaving the United States exposed at the core of its supply chain.

Against this backdrop, Trump’s decision to impose a sweeping 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods by November 2025 has alarmed economists worldwide. Their verdict is nearly unanimous: tariffs will not cripple China but will instead damage the American economy. The burden falls squarely on US consumers and industries, who must pay higher prices for imports and inputs. For companies such as Boeing, electric vehicle manufacturers, and defense contractors, which rely heavily on Chinese components, the effect will be immediate and severe. Instead of securing advantage, tariffs threaten to undercut sectors vital to US national security and global competitiveness.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025