Pakistan likely to meet all IMF performance criteria in upcoming review: Topline

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team is set to visit Pakistan on September 25, 2025, for the second semi-annual review of the $7-billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF), with the country expected to meet all seven Quantitative Performance Criteria (QPC) for the March and June 2025 quarters, including net international reserves and SWAP positions, said Topline Securities in its report on Saturday.

The upcoming review will assess Pakistan’s economic performance for the March and June 2025 quarters.

MoF says not confirmed as yet: IMF may send review mission to Pakistan later this month

Successful completion of the review will pave the way for the IMF Board’s approval of a $1 billion tranche, under which Pakistan has already received over $2 billion in two instalments.

“Based on our working, Pakistan is expected to meet all QPC, including Net International Reserve and SWAP positions,” said the brokerage house.

According to Topline Securities, the primary balance numbers for FY25 are already in line with IMF targets, although data on government guarantees have not been made public.

In its latest briefing, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Governor said that the central bank is “ready to present its performance to IMF for the outgoing quarters”, but did not confirm whether all SBP-related targets had been achieved.

“We believe this review will also have extensive discussions over the rest of FY26 targets, keeping in view the recent flood situation,” said Topline.

The flash floods have killed 972 people so far, according to Pakistan’s National Disaster Management Authority.

The floods have destroyed crops, livestock, and homes across Punjab province and are now pushing into Sindh, threatening fresh food inflation and creating deeper hardship in the cash-strapped South Asian nation.

The brokerage house, citing reports, noted that the government is considering revising key economic projections: GDP growth is likely to be revised down to 3% from 4%, inflation raised to 8%, and Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) tax targets adjusted to Rs13.7–13.9 trillion from the earlier Rs14.13 trillion.

IMF’s Resident Representative to Pakistan noted the review would be “critical in assessing the country’s financial capacity to respond to the disaster.”

Topline Securities emphasised that the upcoming review is significant given the floods’ wide-ranging social and economic impact.

“We expect, IMF and government to reach a consensus on revised economic projections, with a likely increase in fiscal deficit and inflation targets and a potential decline in GDP and FBR revenue targets,” said Topline.