Pakistan’s GDP grows 2.4% in Jan-Mar: NAC

Pakistan has posted a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 2.4% in the third quarter (January-March) of fiscal year 2024-25, estimates released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Tuesday showed.

This comes despite the contraction in industry (-1.14%) during the said period, read a press release issued by the PBS after the National Accounts Committee (NAC) 113th meeting.

Meanwhile, agriculture and services posted a growth of 1.18% and 3.99%, respectively.

“In agriculture, although important crops have declined by -11.14% but other crops have grown by 4.84% on account of double-digit growth in the production of onion (11%) and mango (26%). Livestock (4.42%), forestry (4.25%) and fishing (0.50%) have also registered positive growth rates during Q3 FY2024- 25.

“The negative growth rate in industry (-1.14%) during Q3 FY2024- 25 is due to mining & quarrying (-3.96%), large-scale manufacturing (-0.89%), electricity, gas and water supply (-7.72%) and construction (-9.12%).

“The overall growth in services is 3.99% during Q3 2024-25 with all the constituents contributing positively i.e. wholesale & retail trade (+1.57%), transportation & storage (+0.67%), information and communication (+18.44%), finance & insurance activities (+10.65%), public administration and social security (+13.73%) education (+4.63%), health & social work (5.06%) and other private services (+2.93%),” according to a press release issued PBS.

Further, the NAC committee approved the updated growth of GDP during the first and second quarters of FY2023- 24 at 1.37% and 1.53%, respectively, as compared to 1.34% and 1.73% estimated previously.

The committee also approved the provisional growth of GDP at 2.68% during the ongoing FY 2024-25. This is lower than the target of 3.6% set by the government.

The provisional growth rates in agriculture, industry and services are 0.56%, 4.77% and 2.91%, respectively.

“We expect Pakistan’s full-year GDP to grow at 2.5-3.0% in FY25, wherein we expect the agriculture sector to grow at 1.8%, followed by the industrial 1% and services at 3.4%,” said Topline Securities in a note.

The committee approved the overall final growth of annual GDP during FY 2022-23 at -0.21%, which was estimated at -0.22% in the 111th meeting.

Size of economy

As per NAC, on the basis of the latest figures of the national accounts aggregates for FY2024- 25, the overall size of Pakistan’s economy stands at Rs114.7 trillion, i.e. $410.96 billion, as compared to Rs105.1 trillion, i.e. $371.66 billion.

Further, per capita income in Rupees is 509,174/- i.e. $1,824, NAC data showed.