India’s suspension of Indus Waters Treaty

As an aftermath of the Pahalgam incident in which 26 tourists were killed, India initiated a series of aggressive diplomatic actions, which among other retaliatory measures, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), which governs the distribution of river waters between India and Pakistan.

The suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty brings into question the legitimacy of India’s action, considering the following:

India initiated this action immediately after the incident with no credible evidence of Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam tragedy. This points towards the intention of exploiting the incident scenario to build up a case for the suspension of the treaty.

• The Indus Waters Treaty is between three parties — India, Pakistan and World Bank as a third-party guarantor. India took this decision unilaterally, which infringes on the sanctity of the treaty and on the rights of Pakistan and World Bank by sidelining them.

• The treaty between India and Pakistan incorporates a mechanism for dispute resolution and a clause of arbitration, with the World Bank as a third-party guarantor and a referee. In case of disputes, this is prescribed channel to register disputes. Suspension of the treaty is not an option to be exercised.

Considering the above three facts, the act of India of unilaterally suspending the treaty lacks legitimacy and is unlikely to hold ground when challenged in the International Court of Arbitration.

Furthermore, the suspension of the treaty by India is an irresponsible act, which in practical terms means that the treaty is now hanging in the air which provides each party an opportunity to blatantly infringe on the water rights of the other, thereby potentially escalating into military confrontations with severe consequences.

Ever since the removal of Article 370 in 2019, the next agenda for the Modi government has been to bring around changes in the Indus Waters Treaty to its advantage. It has been pressing hard for it since the last few years but was frustrated with silence from Pakistan on the issue. The Pahalgam incident has provided India an opportunity to fast-track the process.

The suspension of Indus Waters Treaty has also been exploited by India in feeding its people with an additional narrative for Pakistan basing. “We will ensure no drop of the Indus River water reaches Pakistan,” India’s water resources minister, Chandrakant Raghunath Paatil, said on X. The Indian nation is now echoing the slogan: “Not a drop of water for Pakistan”, provoking the sentiments of the people of Pakistan.

The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960 by India and Pakistan with the World Bank as a third-party guarantor, is an agreement that regulates the water distribution of the Indus River and its tributaries, which are crucial for both countries.

The treaty survived multiple conflicts between the two nations, and it is often held up as an example of successful international water-sharing agreements. Unilaterally suspending the treaty could raise questions under international law, particularly given the treaty’s endorsement by the World Bank. Agreements under international water laws are expected to be honoured unless both parties consent to amendments. Unilateral suspension could potentially bring the issue to international forums such as the International Court of Justice or arbitration under international frameworks.

In a letter written immediately after the Pahalgam incident, by the Indian Secretary of the Ministry of Water to her counterpart in Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources, the Indian government has officially informed Pakistan about the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty.

Among many other reasons cited for suspension, the Indian government’s notice linked the decision to national security concerns and the cross-border terrorism that allegedly happens from Pakistan’s soil. India’s attempt is to open the Indus Waters Treaty to renegotiation to gain concessions out of Pakistan by intimidating it and on the strength of its newly acquired economic strength and geopolitical influence.

There is a sound and well substantiated basis available with Pakistan to challenge the legalities of the unilateral and aggressive action of suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty by India in the International Court of Justice or arbitration under international frameworks.

Understandably, as the dust settles, Pakistan and India will have to come to the negotiation table to revisit the Indus Waters Treaty in accordance with a certain clause of the treaty of 1960.

Pakistan’s success at the International Court of Justice or arbitration under international frameworks could land it at the negotiation table from the position of strength and may knock out some of the assumptions used by India to build up its case for renegotiating the treaty.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2025