MOSCOW: Russian wheat export prices dropped last week, partly in response to general market optimism about a potential settlement of the Ukraine conflict, analysts said.
The Sovecon consultancy estimated prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at between $250 and $252 a ton free-on-board (FOB), compared with $250-$253 last week.
“Wheat prices declined following optimistic White House comments about a possible resolution in Ukraine,” Sovecon analysts said.
US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he hoped Russia and Ukraine would make a deal this week to end the conflict. But on Friday, Trump and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had said the United States would walk away from efforts to broker a Russia-Ukraine peace deal unless there were clear signs of progress.
Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, said the price for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for FOB delivery in May was down by two dollars to $248 a metric ton last week compared with the previous week. Rylko did not mention the peace talks as a reason for the lower prices.
A peace settlement would potentially increase the supply of Russian wheat on export markets, meaning lower prices. Weekly wheat exports were estimated at 0.45 million tons last week, down from 0.47 million tons the previous week, Sovecon said.
Sovecon increased its estimate for April wheat exports by 0.1 million tons to 2.0 million tons, still substantially lower than the 5.0 million tons exported in April 2024.
Sovecon said the weather in Russia’s grain producing regions was warm and dry in the latest week but rain and lower temperatures were expected in early May.
Spring crop sowing covered an area of 3 million hectares by April 11, compared with 3.9 million hectares at the same date last year, Sovecon said.
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