SINGAPORE: Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose to an over-one-year high this week, amid forecasts of colder temperatures and as concerns of Europe’s storage levels persist.
The average LNG price for March delivery into northeast Asia was at $16.10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), the highest since November 2023, industry sources estimated.
“The main market concern is the high rate of withdrawals from Europe’s gas inventories… The region appears on track to import 11 million tons of LNG in February,” said Siamak Adibi, director for gas and LNG supply analytics at FGE.
“Europe will certainly need higher LNG imports this year to address higher gas consumption and lower gas inventories. If Asian demand strengthens, market tightness could have a greater impact on spot prices.”
Asian prices were also supported as the market needs to remain competitive and keep itself priced into some spot volumes, for a baseline level of LNG to flow into Asia, said Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus.
Several LNG cargoes were diverted from Asia to Europe, on higher European prices and weaker Asian demand.
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Additionally, Tokyo and Seoul are both forecast for cold snaps towards the end of the month, though this is set to be followed by a reversion to seasonal average temperatures by the end of the month, said Argus’ Senior.
In Europe, gas prices eased from two-year highs on forecasts of warmer temperatures, ongoing U.S. efforts to end the war in Ukraine and talks of less rigid gas storage targets.
Still, market uncertainties remain as Europe’s inventories have dropped to around 47%, with still some winter months to come, said Hans Van Cleef, chief energy economist at PZ-Energy.
“Risks of a further or even faster depletion of inventories will continue to build on the already negative sentiment in the markets.”
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in March on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $15.137/mmBtu on February 13,a $0.55/mmBtu discount to the March gas price at the Dutch TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price at $15.11/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed it at $15.097/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope for February narrowed for a third straight week, but is still signalling that U.S. cargoes are incentivised to deliver to Europe over Asia, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.
On LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose to $5,000/day on Friday, marginally recovering from record lows seen in the last two weeks, added Afghan. Pacific rates remained steady at $10,000/day.
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