South Korea export growth hits 7 month low amid US election uncertainty

SEOUL: South Korea’s export growth slowed to a seven-month low in October, below market expectations, in a sign that cooling global demand and US election uncertainty are undermining the economy.

Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy rose 4.6% from a year earlier to $57.52 billion, the smallest increase since March and a slowdown from gains of 7.5% in September, official data showed on Friday.

The rise was below expectations in a Reuters poll for an increase of 6.9% and also showed exports slowing for the third straight month.

On average per working day, exports were down 0.2% compared with a year earlier, their first fall since September 2023.

Stephen Lee, chief economist at Meritz Securities, had expected exports to derive some support from industrial materials amid lower interest rates and a recovery in the global manufacturing sector.

“But it seems the recovery is being delayed due to heightened uncertainty over the US election and the global economic cycle itself,” Lee said.

The trade data aligns with a survey showing South Korea’s factory activity shrank for a second month in October, with output falling by the most in 16 months.

The trade-reliant economy barely grew in the third quarter, despite signs of recovery in consumer spending, as exports weakened, which economists said raised the chance for more stimulus from the government to support growth.

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Trade Minister Ahn Duk-geun said on Friday that the government “is thoroughly assessing the potential impact” of next week’s US election on each sector taking into account every possible scenario.

The Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, a state-run think tank, estimated this week that South Korea would lose as much as $44.8 billion in exports if Republican candidate Donald Trump wins the presidential election and includes the country in a 20% universal tariff on US imports that he has floated.

The latest data shows that shipments to the United States rose 3.4% from a year earlier, matching the pace in September.

That was the 15th straight month of increases but also the slowest pace since August 2023.

Exports to China jumped 10.9% to a 25-month high of $12.2 billion and compared with a rise of 6.3% in September. Exports to the European Union gained 5.7%.

Exports of semiconductors increased 40.3% to $12.5 billion in October, lower in value terms than the record high of $13.6 billion in September.

Sales of cars rose 5.5%, but petroleum products dropped 34.9% as oil prices have been falling.

Imports rose 1.7% to $54.35 billion in October, weaker than the 2% expected by economists and the September gain of 2.2%.

The country posted a monthly trade surplus of $3.17 billion, less than half the previous month’s $6.66 billion.