‘Trump’s Achilles’ heel: immigrant voters’

This is apropos a letter to the Editor by this writer carried by the newspaper yesterday. In my view, Kamala Harris, as a woman of South Asian and Jamaican descent, holds particular significance for immigrant communities. Her nomination and vice presidency represent a historic milestone in the US political landscape, and her background could galvanize South Asian, African-American, and Caribbean-American voters.

Harris’s candidacy could act as a rallying point for immigrant and minority voters, particularly those who see her as an advocate for civil rights, immigration reform, and inclusive policies. In Michigan, immigrant and minority voters are concentrated in urban areas like Detroit, Dearborn, and Ann Arbor.

Arab-American voters, particularly from the Lebanese, Syrian, and Yemeni communities in Dearborn, have historically played a decisive role in local and national elections. Similarly, the South Asian population in suburban Detroit is growing and becoming more politically engaged.

Given the state’s narrow margins in recent elections, the mobilization of immigrant voters could be crucial. In 2020, Joe Biden won Michigan by around 154,000 votes. Immigrant and minority voters, particularly in urban centers, contributed significantly to this victory. If the Democratic Party can further energize these communities, particularly through the candidacy of Kamala Harris, it could more than compensate for any losses among the white working-class voters Trump retains.

In Michigan in particular and across the USA in general, the white vote is no longer a monolithic bloc. Trump continues to enjoy strong support among white working-class voters, particularly those without a college degree, due to his populist message on trade and immigration. However, college-educated whites, particularly in suburban areas, are increasingly turning away from Trump’s more extreme positions on race, immigration, and governance.

Applying the theory of a divided white vote and a unified immigrant vote across the U.S. in 2024 gives much deeper insights into Harris’s potential gains. Texas has a large Latino and South Asian population. Latino voters, in particular, are a significant force in Texas, making up about 40% of the population. A 3-5% immigrant vote swing in Harris’s favor could be enough to make Texas a competitive state. Florida has a large Latino (primarily Cuban-American and Puerto Rican) and immigrant population.

Harris could see gains in South Florida if she can energize Latino voters with policies on immigration, economic opportunity, and healthcare. Potential Gain for Harris: 2-4% swing, particularly in Miami-Dade and Orlando regions, could bring Florida back into the Democratic column. Arizona has a sizable Latino population and saw Joe Biden win in 2020.

Harris could potentially build on this success by increasing turnout among Latino and younger immigrant voters. A 2-3% increase in immigrant turnout could solidify Arizona as a Democratic win. Georgia has seen a growing Black and immigrant population, particularly Latinos and Asians in the Atlanta metro area. A 2-4% increase in turnout among Black, Latino, and Asian communities could help secure Georgia for Harris.

Qamar Bashir

Copyright Business Recorder, 2024