MUMBAI: The Indian rupee on Friday will likely be helped by the expected inflows from the inclusion of the nation’s bonds in the JPMorgan emerging market bond index, while keeping an eye on the strength in the dollar before key US inflation data.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will likely open unchanged to the US dollar from 83.46 in the previous session.
The rupee rose on Thursday, shrugging of the weakness on the Asian peers, helped by portfolio inflows.
“Today’s session in a way will be like yesterday. Inflows will provide the push lower (to USD/INR pair), while the dollar index marches higher,” a currency trader at a bank said.
The trader said he expects the near-term swaps (cash/tomorrow) to move higher amid the possible dollar inflows.
Indian bonds will be included in the JPMorgan emerging market index from later in the day. Since the announcement in September, foreigners have poured in nearly $11 billion into Indian bonds.
“It would not be surprising at all if we see a larger dip (on the dollar/rupee) pair today,” a forex salesperson at a bank said.
Meanwhile, the dollar index climbed to near 106.10 before the May core US personal consumption expenditures price index data.
Indian rupee likely to draw support from expected inflows amid rise in US yields
The US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge is expected to rise at a muted pace of 0.1% month-on-month.
“Unless core PCE inflation is much slower than expected, we think the short-term US dollar uptrend will remain intact,” MUFG Bank said in a note.
Before the data, investors are pricing in two Fed rate cuts this year.
Fed officials have repeatedly advocated patience on rate cuts amid their fight to bring inflation down to their 2% target.
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