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Markets

Copper rally pauses, downside risks start to build

Published April 5, 2024 Updated April 5, 2024 05:32pm
Photo: Reuters
Photo: Reuters
By

LONDON: Copper prices fell in London on Friday, stepping away from a 14-month high hit in the previous session as the market focused on crucial U.S. jobs data due later in the day.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.3% to $9,332.5 per metric ton by 1000 GMT. Copper prices hit $9,397.5, the highest since January, 2023 on Thursday.

“Copper has done a lot recently and the rise has been rapid, so even if it continues going up in the short term, downside risks are starting to build,” said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.

Better-than-expected manufacturing activity data from top metals consumer China and hopes for rate cuts in the U.S. and Europe boosted growth-dependent industrial metals earlier this week. Chinese markets were closed on April 4-5.

“The seasonality charts of previous years indicate that normally 9th week of a year is the strongest one for copper, and then it tends to go down closer to summer. We are now in the 14th week,” Smith said.

Copper hits 14-month high on fund buying and softer dollar

Chinese copper factories typically slow down over the northern hemisphere summer months.

The discount for the LME cash over the benchmark three-month copper contract <CMCU0-3> hit a record high of $116.94 on Thursday, which, according to Smith, supported the idea that copper prices were getting closer to their peak.

From the technical point of view, copper is moving at a Fibonacci retracement level, however its 5.3%-growth this week brought it above major moving averages with the nearest, 21-day moving average currently at $8,914.

Meanwhile, aluminium rose 0.3% to $2,450.50, lead fell 1.3% to $2,110, while nickel was steady at $17,690. Tin added 1.0% to $28,920 after hitting the highest since July 2023 of $29,045.

Zinc shed 0.3%, to $2,638. It was heading for a 8.3% weekly gain, its biggest rise since January, 2023.

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