OPEC+ maintaining current supply cuts through year-end coupled with a positive demand backdrop in Asia could push Brent prices above $100 per barrel before 2024, analysts at Bank of America Global Research said.
Benchmark Brent futures were trading around $93 a barrel by 1006 GMT on Wednesday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $89.
Asia is leading the global energy demand growth, and China has continued to boost its oil reserves, to keep up with its reliance on imports, Bank of America said in a note dated Sept. 12.
Last week, OPEC member Saudi Arabia and Russia said they would extend voluntary oil cuts to the end of the year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and their allies like Russia are collectively known as OPEC+.
Oil output cuts which Saudi Arabia and Russia have extended to the end of 2023 will mean a substantial market deficit through the fourth quarter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
The investment bank’s analysts also said that Indian refiners have benefited from the sanctions against Russia and Iran, by gaining access to cheaper crude supplies and selling more expensive goods to Europe.
In the medium term, however, EV (electric vehicle) sales should pick up throughout Asia, particularly in India, where local manufacturers are driving down prices.
As a result, the Asia Pacific market for petroleum products may soon see an imbalance, since China and India are prepared to export fuel surpluses that they do not consume domestically, the bank’s analysts said.