MUMBAI: Indian government bond yields are expected to trend higher in early session on Monday, as US yields continue to remain elevated.
The benchmark 7.26% 2033 bond yield is likely to be in the 7.22%-7.26% range, after ending the previous session at 7.2172%, a trader with a primary dealership said.
“US yields have again moved higher, with the benchmark comfortably above the 4.25% mark, and local bond should follow suit,” the trader said. “With lack of any major local triggers, we expect Indian bonds to closely track Treasuries for the week.”
US yields continue to remain higher as traders are adjusting for the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will hold rates higher for longer as economic data remains solid, amid the central bank’s focus on bringing inflation closer to its 2% annual target.
Fed funds futures traders are pricing in around 110 basis points (bps) of rate cuts in 2024, down from around 140 bps a few weeks ago.
The Fed has raised rates by 525 bps since March 2022 to 5.25%-5.50% range.
The 10-year US yield was three bps higher for the day at 4.28%, after having risen an aggregate of 43 bps in last five weeks.
Sentiment also weakened after India’s July retail inflation spiked to a 15-month high of 7.44% from 4.87% in the previous month.
India bond yields seen little changed with focus on debt supply
However, market participants believe inflation may ease in the coming months and the central bank may refrain from hiking rates again.
Ashhish Vaidya, managing director and head of treasury and markets at DBS Bank India, expects the benchmark bond yield to not rise much beyond 7.25%, and the bond yield curve to steepen over the medium term as elevated inflation will fall back within the central bank’s comfort zone in a few months.
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