The Federal Reserve is likely to raise its policy rate once more in May to a range of 5.00%-5.25%, according to interest rate futures, even after a government report on Wednesday showed March consumer prices notched their smallest gain in almost two years.
U.S. short-term interest rate futures rose after the report, and now reflect about a 68% chance of a quarter-of-a-percentage-point rate hike in May, down from about a 73% chance seen before the data. The current target range is 4.75%-5.00%.
Easing gasoline prices slowed overall inflation to an annual 5% pace, down from 6% in February.
But underlying price pressures remain strong, bolstered by housing and other services-related inflation, suggesting the Fed needs to tighten policy further to make more headway on bringing inflation down to its 2% goal.
US Fed mulls more rate hikes amid banking uncertainty
Fed policymakers are contending with a competing concern: potentially tighter credit conditions after the failure of two regional lenders last month put stress on the banking sector as a whole. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee urged patience and prudence on rate hikes in light of those risks.
Other Fed policymakers have signaled comfort with another interest rate hike, and Chair Jerome Powell has said he does not want to risk stopping short of the mark on policy tightening, only to have to start raising rates again if inflation heats up again.
After the CPI report, traders firmed up bets the Fed will reverse course by the end of summer and deliver a few rate cuts by year’s end. They now see short-term rates ending the year about half a percentage point lower than they are now, based on futures prices.
“I think with inflation taking a big step down from 6% to 5%, if that sustains, that could give the Fed leeway to cut rates later this year if we see a sharp slowdown in the economy,” said Convera’s Joe Manibo.
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