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EDITORIAL: All is not well on the economic front, acknowledged Minister of State for Finance and Revenue Aisha Ghous Pasha while briefing the National Assembly standing committee on Finance. She and the Federal Finance Minister Ishaq Dar who has little history of engaging with parliamentary committees or with anyone outside a very small team that he himself carefully selects are on the same page in their insistence that Pakistan will not default.

Given the precarious state of foreign exchange reserves as during the week ended on Dec 16, State Bank of Pakistan’s reserves decreased by $ 584 million to $ 6.116 billion, the situation is very alarming, to say the least. However, to be able to deal with the short- to medium-term foreign exchange needs of the country the exchange rate will have to be more flexible than is the current practice.

At present, the differential between the interbank rate and the open market rate is widening and market surveys indicate that the dollar remains unavailable at even 250 rupees in the open market. There is therefore an urgent need to allow the rupee value to play its due role to stabilise the market through increased home remittances and export proceeds that are withheld at present to maximise the rupee countervalue.

The policy of strengthening the rupee artificially as having any positive economic fallout is less than the negative implications that have beset the economy at present and should be clear by now given the recent downgrade in Pakistan’s credit rating by international rating agencies and its adverse effects on the country’s exports and official remittance inflows.

The government has been using administrative measures to delay the opening of letters of credit for critical imports - raw materials that are negatively impacting on domestic output and employment, deficient perishable food items due to the floods, as well as repatriation of profits by foreign companies that are in turn affecting provision of utilities.

The delay in the start of the ninth review negotiations with the IMF accounts for the delay in the disbursement of pledged assistance by friendly countries, notably China and Saudi Arabia, pledges made directly to the IMF and therefore contingent on the success of the ninth review. To put it in a nutshell, the lack of flexibility in the foreign exchange policy is the root cause of much of what ails the economy today and it is high time that the economic team leaders acknowledge this serious error and reverse this policy immediately.

What should be a source of further concern is that the Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR’s) projections for the current year would be compromised because the revenue from imports would decline as the country’s imports are controlled because of forex constraints through administrative measures and with heavy reliance on regressive indirect taxes, particularly sales tax, whose incidence on the poor is greater than on the rich, the danger of a possible social unrest is looming large on the horizon.

The government’s heavy reliance on petroleum levy - to the tune of 750 million dollars budgeted under this head for the current year - impacts heavily on the purchasing power of each rupee earned, again with the possibility of public discontent spilling out on the streets.

And perhaps, the unkindest cut of all for the general public with respect to government policy is the fact that irrespective of the fragile state of the economy a trillion rupee increase in expenditure was budgeted in the current year with so far no effort towards curtailment either by keeping public sector incomes constant, implementing reforms of the unsustainable pension system, demanding sacrifices from the key recipients of current expenditure or improving governance in public sector entities, particularly Railways and PIA, reliant on government sovereign guarantees (capped by the IMF) or directly on handouts from the treasury.

Unless corrected, the ongoing economic policies being implemented will exacerbate the problems rather than solve them.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022

Comments

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Zia Ullah Khan Dec 27, 2022 10:51am
Mr. Dar understands all this and has decided deliberately to overturn the cart ; partly to avoid blame for PMLN and partly to create unsustainable conditions for the incoming interim government to prove that he was managing the economy much better. He already understands that he is returning to UK permanently very soon.
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samir sardana Dec 28, 2022 05:46am
6 Bn USD looks scary,but it ain't There is no private debt due by SBP/GOP for next 15-18 months ! So what is the issue ? Fuel and Edible Oi and Wheatl is coming via LC on IBR .ALL THE REST, IS VIA HUNDI, OR DEFERRED CREDIT OR POSTPONED = FORM OF IMPORT SUBSTITUTION ! EXPORTS are ON D/A and is an EDGE FOR PAKISTAN EXPORTERS. THE BUYER BUYS TOWELS FROM KARACHI ON DA 90 DAYS BUYER GETS TOWELS IN 21 DAYS HE SELLS IN 30 DAYS AND THEN THE PAKISTANI EXPORTER TELLS THE BUYER TO HOLD THE MONEY FOR ANOTHER 140 DAYS AT FREE INTEREST. SO THE BUYER HAS 2-3 ROTATIONS WITH THE EXPORT DUES - FREE OF COST ! PAKISTANI EXPORTER HAS GOT THE HUNDI RATE OF 250 VS IBR OF 225 OR A DEPRECIATED IBR! SO THERE IS HUGE DEMAND PULL FOR PAKISTANI EXPORT PRODUCTS DUE TO THIS TREASURY/FX ARBITRAGE ! NO NEED TO PANIC,AS THE PAKISTANI EXPORTER,NEEDS THE USD ON EXPORTS, TO MAKE IMPORTS AND PURCHASES AND PAY OFF WORKING CAPITAL INTEREST ! EXPORTERS CAN ONLY PLAY UPTO A LIMIT ! dindooohindoo
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samir sardana Dec 28, 2022 05:56am
FROM THE POINT OF EQUITY - ARE D/A EXPORTERS ,MAKING IMPORTS UNDER IBR LCs ? THAT IS TO SAY, ,IS THE SBP PRIORITISING THE EXPORTERS,FOR THEIR IMPORT REQUIREMENTS,TO OPEN IMPORT LCs,,and THUS,USE USD AT IBR? IF SO, THEN AT LEAST THAT MUCH SHOULD BE REGULATED BY SBP ,TO PLACE A CAP ON THE TENOR OF D/A EXPORTS OR OBTAIN LC for exports TO THE EXTENT OF THE USD SOLD AT IBR FOR THE IMPORT NEEDS OF THE EXPORT. THAT IS EASY,AS THE FOREIGN BUYER HAS LARGE TREASURY SURPLUSES, BY DEFERRING PAYMENTS TO PAKISTAN - AND SO,CAN EASILY ISSUE LC, FOR A PART OF THE EXPORT AMOUNT (AS A 12 MONTH SB LC FOR NEXT 12 MONTHS EXPORTS) - WHICH WILL BE NEGOTIATED AT BL SOB BY THE PAKISTANI EXPORTER OR THE IMPORTER CAN USE THE TREASURY SURPLUS ON DEFERMENT (OF EXPORT PAYMENT TO PAKISTAN) TO ISSUE RED CLAUSE LCs to PAKISTAN EXPORTER, TO DRAWN DOWN THE RED CLAUSE INTO A USD ACCOUNT AND USE THAT FOR IMPORTS.dindoooohindoo
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samir sardana Dec 28, 2022 06:06am
SIMILARLY THE OVERSEAS PAKISTANIS HAVE TO SEND USD TO THEIR FAMILIES & THAT ALSO CANNOT BE DEFERRED MUCH ! SO NO USD EARNER IS MAKING A KILLING ! THE EXPORTER WHO GOT USD AT IBR LC TO IMPORT MATERIAL- CANNOT BRING BACK THE USD ON EXPORT VIA HUNDI ! HE HAS TO BRING IT TO THE BANK - AT LEAST IN PART (IF EXPORT IS UNDERINVOICED) AT IBR.OR HE CAN ASK THE IMPORTER TO MAKE A QUALITY CLAIM & ASK HIM TO WIRE TO THE EXPORTERS ACCOUNT IN ZUG OR DUBAI (the quality claim)! BUT THIS CAN BE DONE 1-2 TIMES ! SO THE ONLY MAN MAKING A KILLING IS THE CURRENCY CHANGER/HUNDI MAN ! BUT THIS MAN IS "KILLING IMPORTS" - BETTER THAN THE IMF CAN DO ! BY SKEWERING THE IMPORT FINANCE & SUPPLY CHAIN - THE COST OF IMPORTS WILL KILL CONSUMPTION OR REDUCE IT (AS USD WILL NOT BE THERE OR WILL BLOW UP ) & FOR THAT, THEY DESERVE A MEDAL ! PEOPLE HAVE TO PAY a "ECONOMIC PRICE" TO CONSUME ITEMS,WHICH IF LEFT TO MARKET,WOULD PUSH UP THE ACTUAL COST TO USERS,FOR ESSENTIALS ! THAT IS THE TRADE OFF ! dindooohindoo
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Haris Dec 29, 2022 08:53pm
@samir sardana, interesting but allow me to point out that no consumption is killed by jacked up prices of imports since these are inelastic imports like crude oil, wheat, pulses, inputs for drugs etc. So even if all this play is being done in the black market, it will only going to make things worst for common man
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Abhishek N Dec 30, 2022 03:40am
And yet the halwa puris wasting 60,000 rupees importing drones that India shoots down. Sunni ki munni logic
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