Brent oil is expected to retest a support of $84.28 per barrel, a break below which could open the way towards $82.35.
Oil is riding on a wave e, the fifth wave of a five-wave cycle from the Nov. 7 high of $99.56. This wave may travel to $78.30, as pointed by a falling trendline.
A realistic target is $82.35, which will be confirmed when oil breaks $84.28. The first part of the wave e has completed, as it could be broken down into five smaller waves.
This five-wave mode indicates a deep downside, as the wave e could extend a lot. It is not very clear how strong the current bounce would be.
A weak bounce may end around $86.13 while a strong one could extend into $87.27-$87.98 range. On the daily chart, oil temporarily hovers above a support at $83.63.
The support looks vulnerable as oil is making its third attempt to test this barrier. Most likely, it could break this level and fall towards $77.56.
It must be noted that the fall will not be limited to $77.56, as oil is riding on a wave (C) which could travel into $57.95-$67.75 range.
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