Is it too late for Shahbaz?

Finally, it is the younger Sharif’s day in the sun. The reluctant sibling’s turn has come after the PML-N has been dealt repeated judicial blows. Now the knives are out for Shahbaz himself, if NAB’s recent arrest of Punjab’s “Metro Man” is any guide. Is it too late for the longtime Punjab ruler to mend fences with the invisible forces that have been throwing one curveball at the PML-N after another? Can Shahbaz orchestrate a political recovery in time and return an embattled party victorious the in 2018 elections?

It is unclear how much leadership space Shahbaz will have, given that the elder Sharif has been anointed the party’s ‘Quaid for life’. Out of the PM office and now stripped of party leadership as well, it will be naïve to expect Nawaz to suddenly stop dictating party policy. That may become a problem, for the duo has sharply contrasting ideas on how to resolve the Sharif dynasty’s increasing hardships.

Shahbaz seems no fond of confrontational politics, which has been the party’s MO since Nawaz was ousted by the apex court in the Panama Papers verdict in July 2017. Instead, he prefers a pragmatic approach that doesn’t directly take on other state organs. The Shahbaz doctrine may find more backers in the party, now that Nawaz has heavily paid for his defiance, with more adverse verdicts expected soon.

It will be interesting to see which political narrative a Shahbaz-led PML-N decides to take to the elections. Will it be based on Nawaz’s apparent victimization? Or will it be sourced from Shahbaz’s mantra of ‘development’? But the bigger question is: can either of those narratives return the PML-N an electoral majority?

The Sharif siblings have a mutual dependency, which can explain their unity despite all odds. The Nawaz-Shahbaz combine is a winning formula for the party. Nawaz is good at galvanizing the PML-N base and cobbling together electoral alliances in battleground constituencies. Shahbaz delivers highly-visible mega projects through his efficient administrative machine. This complementarity may lead to a fusion of Nawaz’s victim-card and Shahbaz’s development-scorecard at the polls. But will that be enough?

Since Nawaz ouster last year, political pundits have been pitching a Shahbaz vs. Imran contest in Punjab. The twist is that CM Punjab now also finds himself under the gun. This gives rise to an impression that Shahbaz may no longer be the chosen one. That affords the Captain another opening to hammer down his anti-corruption message, which didn’t quite resonate in the recent by-elections.

Amid current political uncertainty, there’s still many a slip between the cup and the lip. But if the democratic transition occurred on time, it would be an ultimate leadership test for Shahbaz, with his party’s future hanging in the balance.