Floods ‘mimic 2010’?

Tragically, the country is witnessing another super flood within a span of twelve years. The impact assessment is taking place and situation would be clearer in a week or two. The impact in terms of loss of human life and the socioeconomic effects may be less than what was the case in 2010 floods as depicted by the water level. But the grave issue here is past lessons belligerently unlearnt, no preparedness and poor forecasting. There is an inherent lack of coordination in disaster management departments whilst being severely under-resourced.

The coordination between the Met department and every PDMA (Provincial Disaster Management Authorities) is weak. PDMAs are looking towards NDMA (National Disaster Management Authority); while the latter says that the resources are passed on to provinces.

No PDMA has district-level staff to deal with such calamities. NDMA’s job is to coordinate with military and navy for the help. Manpower requirement to evacuate people before the calamity hits is missing with PDMAs; while NDMA jumps in post-crisis to manage with the help of military and navy.

The country had a very long heat wave this summer which started earlier than usual. Reports and warnings from the Met office were continuously coming; but not enough seriousness was shown by authorities.

Due to the heat wave in the Arabian Sea (western most extent of the Indian Ocean) moisture started building. It remained stable till the monsoon winds came. These winds moved the moisture upcountry. Clouds were formed resulting in excessive rain. This was expected to happen. Warnings were issued by technical people. But their presentation was not good, and authorities were busy in political infighting.

The situation in 2010 was a bit different. Heatwave back then was over Central Asia and parts of the Russian Federation. That had resulted in floods to come from the northwest. This year, the floods started due to rainfall in the south. And the floods have stemmed from the northwest (up country). However, the forecast suggests that the overall water levels will remain lower than those of 2010. River flows forecast is to reach around 700,000 cusecs at Taunsa; these will be around 800,000 cusecs at Sukkur. The levels had crossed the million cusecs mark in 2010.

That is reflected in terms of lower human and livestock losses, though the perception on social media is that these floods are worse than those of 2010. Social media coverage in 2010 was not as widespread as it is today and there was complete blackout. In the last decade, a host of infrastructure- buildings, housing societies, etc., have been developed on the riverbeds and around water where they are not supposed to be built.

But encroachment is a norm in Pakistan. These buildings and similar infrastructure are collapsing due to the flood, as they don’t have requisite structural strength to withstand latent water movement. The water flows in these areas have derbies (concrete and stones) in it, and when that flow hits roads, the impact is higher and scarier. And the panic spread when videos of such devastations become viral.

In the 2010 floods, Punjab was affected too. This time, there are no issues from Gujrat to Sahiwal. And even the impact in the Southern Punjab is not as devastating as it was in 2010. Back then, Multan and Muzaffargarh were saved due to mango orchids, near the riverbed in Multan. Now housing societies (including DHA) are formed in this region, and there is no natural cover to save cities, if anything like 2010 comes in future. That is putting the Multan belt in serious floods risk.

The major impact this time is in Sindh and Baluchistan. The human loss in KP is relatively lower. But there is infrastructure loss – due to primarily encroachments. Since it’s a valley, people can move in upper areas to be safe in KP. Meanwhile, social media warnings helped people take timely actions.

Sindh is mainly plains and people resist relocation. They have their livestock and land. They think floods come every year, and they don’t comprehend the calamity’s impact. The loss compared to 2010 is lower in Sindh as well. Back then, the big feudals of Sindh diverted the water to populous areas- away from their lands. This time they couldn’t do it. Their land is destroyed. The crops are impacted, but less human misery.

The problem this time is heavy rainfall in Sindh and Baluchistan. The landlords were not prepared. And due to climate change, there is excessive heat wave and sea levels are rising. Right now, the sea level rising is not much in Pakistan; but it’s surely happening and could be deadly in the next decade or two. The sea is coming close to lands in Badin and Thatta. That is the reason for such unprecedented rainfalls experienced in these areas. The rain in Baluchistan is usually in winters. This time it’s happening in summer. That is due to climate change. That is why lately coastal areas are receiving more rain in monsoon, instead of Tropical storm season (which is pre monsoon).

Evidently, the frequency of floods is increasing. There were a few in 2010s, and two super floods in almost a decade. Some people are comparing the 2022 flood to that of 1976 or so. But at that time there were not many dams or barrages. Some of these became active in the 80s and 90s. In the 70s, Punjab used to be greatly affected as there were not enough dams in India.

The water flows in the Ravi flow used to go up to 600,000 cusecs. Now a mere 60,000 cusecs flow is enough to flood Shahdara. In future, Punjab is at risk, if India releases higher waters as housing and other development is taking place on the Ravi riverbed.

The question many have in mind is about the economic impact of floods. One is on the crops and infrastructure damage. The impact is more in cotton and rice crops in Sindh. These are grown on the right side of the Indus River. According to farmers, most of these are damaged.

The country exported $2.5 billion rice last year and cotton is the raw material for country’s main exports — textiles. There could be less exports of rice and higher imports of cotton to adversely impact the already vulnerable balance of payment situation.

Other is on the perishable food items — fruits and vegetables. Already, the supply chain impact and loss are reflecting in growing onion and tomato prices. On the left bank of the Indus in Sindh, it is not allowed to have major crop before the monsoon; they usually grow vegetables before that, and these are majorly wiped out.

There could be issues on next crop sowing as well. One is land which may take more time to dry. And other is lack of resources facing farmers as they usually use proceeds from the previous crops to sow the next. They have lost livestock and crops. They are displaced. They would need help from the government and others to invest in the next season’s crop. The other issue could be demarcation of land. As with floods, these are required to be done again altogether.

The other economic impact which is less talked about is rural migration to urban centred after the natural calamity. That had happened after the 2005 earthquake, 2010 and other floods, and is going to happen again. People will move to bigger cities. And slums will grow in cities. The climate change migration needs to be addressed. People will move in higher numbers in winters. This will further choke bigger cities.

The issue is that at the end of day, as a nation, we are not able to implement things on past knowledge. Things are happening again in the same areas. Same issues of poor people. Same sort of losses. Same issue of migration.

The requirement is to make cities on the riverbanks more prepared for floods in the future and better facilities to evacuate people at the right time. Otherwise, climate change, encroachments, growing populations and lack of preparedness would not only make the occurrences of floods more frequent, but their devastations will be more lethal on the overall scale.

Copyright Business Recorder, 2022