SINGAPORE: US oil may retest a support at $121.53 per barrel, a break below which could cause a fall into $115.52-$119.87 range.
A gap formed on Monday, which looks more like a common type than a runaway type, as it appeared in the process of a wave 5.
In terms of time, March 5 is an important day which is likely to see a deep correction or a reversal.
The contract failed to break a key resistance at $129.73. This failure means a lot, in conjunction with a possible completion of the wave 5. Market may have over-reacted on the possible sanction of Russian's oil exports.
The strong gain on Monday is unlikely to sustain, instead, it may be wiped out soon.
A break above $126.92 may lead to a gain into $129.72-$132.93 range.
On the daily chart, the resistance at $128.61 may have triggered a pullback toward a falling trendline. This pullback is expected to be shallow, probably limited to $114.89, as the market sentiment is still extremely bullish.
Eventually, oil could overcome the barrier at $128.61 and revisit the 2008 high of $147.27.
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