SAO PAULO: Fourteen analysts polled by Reuters on Thursday projected on average a record corn output of 113.05 million tonnes for Brazil this season, driven by a rise in planted area and sowing of the cereal within the ideal window.
However, analysts warned of potential revisions as the La Niña effect poses a threat for farmers’ second corn - which accounts for 70percent-75percent of Brazil’s entire output in the year - in certain center south states.
In the early part of the Brazilian corn season, when farmers planted their first corn in the summer, a severe drought from that weather pattern caused crop failure in states including Rio Grande do Sul, Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul.
According to analysts, adverse weather could persist during the development of the second corn.
Still, if the average projection in the Reuters poll is confirmed, Brazilian farmers will reap 30percent more corn than in the last cycle, when it was hit by drought and frosts, especially in the second quarter.
“The earlier start of the second corn season and higher soil moist, especially in the Cerrado region, leads us to expect a lower risk of a productivity drop in 2021/2022,” said Céleres analyst Enilson Nogueira. “Together with the rise in planted area, this should result in a bigger output.”
Marcela Marini, an analyst at Rabobank Brasil, cited a 77percent chance of a La Niña occurring in March, April and May, which can cause yield losses in Parana and in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul. These regions have already suffered soybean and corn crop losses.
“With this, despite the prospect of a good corn harvest, the weather during the second corn’s development phase will be crucial for achieving a record 2021/22 crop,” Marini said. Dry and hot weather likely pushed Brazil’s summer corn output to the lowest level in 20 years, Gabriel Faleiros, an analyst with IHS Markit, said.