Euro zone bond yields mixed, concerns about ECB hawkish shift

Euro zone bond yields were mixed on Tuesday after jumping in the previous session with markets concerned about the European Central Bank signalling a faster than expected path of monetary policy tightening to fight inflation at its meeting on Thursday.

After Monday's German consumer price index, more data supported that view, as French inflation fell less than expected in January.

Investors will also focus on the Bank of England, which is widely expected to raise interest rates on Thursday due to post-pandemic inflation pressures.

While fears about a so-called hawkish shift from the ECB grew, views among analysts were still mixed.

Rate-hike path pushes euro zone bond yields higher in choppy market

"German inflation came in above our economists' markedly above-consensus estimate. The risks that the ECB will accelerate its exit planning on Thursday have thus increased," Commerzbank analysts said in a note to customers.

Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark of the bloc, fell by 0.5 basis points to 0.012%.

"Our view is still that the ECB will hold its nerve on lift-off, and global policy error fears will help keep a lid on long-end yields," Citi analysts said.

"If we're wrong, +25 bps by October is probably as hawkish as the market can get as it is difficult to taper from circa 60 billion euros (of bond purchases) a month in Q1 to zero in time for a Q3 hike," they added, arguing that it "may soon be time to fade the bond selloff".

Analysts expect the ECB to reduce the pace of its bond purchases when its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) ends in March.

Money markets are currently pricing an 80% chance of a 25 basis points hike by October this year and more than a total probability of a 25 bps by December.

Italy's 10-year government bond yield was flat at 1.37%, after falling more than five basis points on Monday as Parliament re-elected Sergio Mattarella head of state, with former ECB chief Mario Draghi keeping his job as prime minister.

The closely watched spread between German and Italian 10-year yields widened one basis point at 135 bps.