FORT COLLINS, (Colo.) February and March are perhaps the two most important months for Argentina’s corn and soybeans to receive ample rainfall, though last month was unusually dry and this month could follow suit, according to the latest weather forecasts.
Yields in the No. 3 corn and soybean exporter are not projected to be great anyhow, though the poor timing of the latest dry spell could reduce potential even further. Crop condition ratings may also be sending mixed and potentially faulty messages to the market.
Weather models as of Thursday agreed that Argentina’s grain belt will stay mostly dry for at least another week. The European model shows the first chances for substantial moisture coming at the end of next week, while the American model suggests rain might not arrive for another two weeks.
Last month was among the driest Februarys on record for key growing areas with rainfall 41% below the long-term average. That was wetter than February 2019, just before the country notched a new record bean yield, and February 2018, which was very hot and linked with one of Argentina’s worst-ever harvests.
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