UK GAS-Prices mixed amid lower demand, outages, cooler March outlook

British wholesale gas prices were mixed on Tuesday morning, driven by lower prompt demand, some gas infrastructure outages and potentially cooler weather from March.

The within-day contract was down 0.55 pence at 42.45 pence per therm by 1100 GMT.

The day-ahead contract was up 0.25 pence at 42 pence per therm.

The British system was slightly oversupplied with demand at 268.4 million cubic metres (mcm) per day and supply at 274.6 mcm/day, according to National Grid data.

Higher sendout of liquefied natural gas (LNG) together with a weak long-term gas demand outlook might weigh on British prices, Refinitiv analyst Xun Peng said in a morning report.

Refinitiv forecast local distribution zone demand, which primarily reflects heating, at 204 mcm/day for Tuesday, down 20 mcm, as temperatures climbed above normal after a recent cold spell.

However, muted imports via the BBL and IUK pipelines from the continent and curbed Norwegian gas flows provided some bullish risk, Peng added.

Capacity at the Troll gas field was reduced by 27 mcm/day until Wednesday morning due to compressor failure, Norway's Gassco said.

A trader also highlighted smaller outages, firmer carbon prices and uncertainty over temperatures in March as supportive factors.

The long-term EC45 forecast indicated curbed gas demand in both for the remainder of February, but restored a slightly firmer than seasonal normal consumption outlook for March, Refinitiv's Peng said.

Although uncertain, forecasts showing more unsettled and cooler weather towards early March were realistic, said Refinitiv meteorologist Georg Muller.

The March gas price at the Dutch TTF hub was up 0.30 euros at 16.65 euros per megawatt hour.

The benchmark Dec-21 EU carbon contract was up 0.53 euro at 40.05 euros a tonne.