Turkish central bank may be rewarded if it holds its nerve

If Turkey's monetary policymakers hold their nerve and leave rates unchanged at their current levels, they could see the lira rising substantially, lowering inflation and laying the foundation for a future easing.

Turkey's president has criticised high interest rates, a big issue for the central bank, which meets tomorrow and recently raised rates to 17%.

Since Turkey made big changes at its central bank and finance ministry and shifted towards conventional policies, the lira has soared.

To bow to the president now is likely to cripple the lira at a point that favours gains for risky assets.

Huge global stimulus has supported big rises for commodities and stocks, boosting demand for linked currencies. Backed by 17% rates, the lira could be a darling of this gambling spree.

USD/TRY is on the cusp of the 200-day moving average, with a break below a potentially triggering an acceleration higher for lira.

The further lira rises, the further rates can eventually be lowered.