If you are anything like me, you are probably eternally late on your reading, and throw most of the "to read stuff" directly in the dustbin, without passing GO! That being the case, today's write- up may just be useful in catching up on upcoming stuff.
The special report of the World Economic Forum on top 10 emerging technologies of 2020 was an eye opener- whilst we in Pakistan remain unsure where we are on the development ladder, the world is really moving full throttle. Personally, I don't think we have moved up from W.W. Rostow's first stage of economic growth- the traditional society.
For the unaware, the traditional society is - well just above the caveman. Subsistence agriculture, labor driven, primary (or raw) produce and lack of scientific perspective on the world and technology characterize this society. Having access to new smart phones, chatting on WhatsApp, posting on Facebook, assembling cars, and food delivery apps are not sufficient to elevate you to the next stage- definitely not.
To be honest, considering that for the past 2 decades at least, we have failed to increase the land under cultivation, and have mismanaged our natural water resources to the extent that we are considered tops in global water stressed country rankings- and more recently have somehow created the twin wheat and sugar crises- makes you think if Rostow got it wrong, and that before traditional there is still scope for the caveman society.
How we ever managed to join the nuclear club, for me, remains the biggest mystery in the history of the world- considering the odds, a grand salute to all those who made it happen and continue to make us relevant because of the efforts on that front.
There will obviously be a lot of dissent with this, us being a traditional society, view- mostly because of misguided patriotism. However, whilst you may even be able to fool everyone all the time, you can never fool yourself. Fine, even I, because of my patriotic feelings, may also want to believe that we are in the second stage- Precondition to take off-however we have definitely not reached the stage in which industrialization begins to occur, and workers and institutions become concentrated around a new industry- the takeoff.
Real estate development is not take off- while construction activity may kick-start the economy, it will definitely not take you to the next stage. And the number of times we have already kicked the economy, perhaps increases the risk that next time we kick it, rather than starting it will start to convulse.
On a different note, considering the above, the debate revolving around the economy in the media really is mindboggling. A traditional society needs to worry more about industrialization rather than all kinds of economic ratios and debating how free markets enhance innovation and efficiency. A visit to rural Pakistan highlights how little of our agriculture is supported by technology and then the neoliberal debate seems even more ridiculous.
On a serious note, the State needs to make some serious capital investment in Agriculture and Industrialization- the policy of giving incentives to the private sector and waiting for them to step up has failed miserably. And before that happens, perhaps the State can also do something about my pet peeves- property rights being disputed in courts for decades, inability to enforce contracts due to extraordinary policing, and educating the gullible masses.
Imagine, after taking stock off our own stage of development, how and what it felt like whilst reading about the top 10 emerging technologies- you got to be kidding me!
Anyways- the top 10 were sifted out of 75 nominated aspirants- wow!
In light of my aversion to syringes and injections, I totally agree with No 1- microneedles (about the width of the human hair) for pain-free injections and blood testing. For that I may even migrate to the West, since this isn't happening here very soon. Because of my limited knowledge was clueless about why sun-powered chemistry got number 2 slot and to be honest, coming from a nation where human life is valued at a few lacs, not too hot on virtual patients either. Spatial computing on the other hand is a thumbs up, I am sure my grandchildren, if not great grandchildren will love it- too complicated to explain here so dear readers kindly Goggle search or watch the movie "Upgrade".
Seriously no point in getting into digital medicine, or next level cell engineering- suffice it to say that in that part of the world they are looking at lower-carbon cement while in our part of the world it still takes four or more years to construct a high rise building- and frankly, 20 odd floors in my view, are not really a high rise.
While the Pakistani rich, in the future, may even import expensive low carbon cement for their homes- it might even become a status symbol- and the target market for digital medicine is probably only for those for whom money matters naught- but unless the State starts getting its act together in the real economy, synthetically altered superman is a bridge too far for this part of the world for at least half a century or maybe much more than that.
All the rhetoric about technology initiatives aside, you just cannot skip the ladders of development- without industrialization, you don't get to Drive to Maturity Stage- and for the record, the Age of High Mass Consumption is not for the weak hearted or unprepared.
On the positive side, all signals are that the government seems to have got its act together, irrespective of the blessed or talented debate, so perhaps this is the right time for the leadership to mull over how to get to the next stage- take off.
(The writer is a chartered accountant based in Islamabad. Email: [email protected]. The views expressed in this article are personal. The views are not necessarily those of the newspaper)
Copyright Business Recorder, 2020
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