COVID-19 lockdowns devastated working class with distant recovery, survey finds

According to a survey released by the Centre for Economic Research in Pakistan (CERP), many households are recovering from the devastating economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but a complete recovery is still distant.

For instance, in the month of September 51 percent of the respondents stated that they had to make some sort of compromise on food (or basic necessities), in an effort to make ends meet. In addition, 87 percent of individuals who struggled to procure essential food items in June stated that the difficulty could be attributed to a lack of sufficient funds.

According to Taimur Shah, one of the researchers involved in the study, "there has been a significant but incomplete recovery, with rural areas lagging behind urban", with the study adding that despite the economic difficulties, "respondents increasingly feel that the lockdowns were effective in slowing the spread of the coronavirus".

The report postulates that "while mean incomes have rebounded from their May levels, they are still 10.75 percentage points less than their pre-Covid levels in February", observing that the poorest segments of the working class appear to have recovered faster, stating "for households earning below minimum wage in February, mean income has recovered to 97.6pc of their pre-Covid values".

Those earning slightly above the minimum wage threshold made a more modest recovery, as the report highlights that "for households who earned more than Rs 17.5k per month, incomes have only recovered to 86pc of their pre-Covid levels". The study also revealed that despite the loss of income during the pandemic, household expenditures remained relatively unchanged, adding that "household spending remain relatively unchanged, despite income losses".

The study also reveals that despite some economic recovery since May, the number of people slipping below the minimum wage threshold has increased, adding that "there has been a recovery in the unemployment rate from June, but it is still 4.49 percentage points higher than it was in February".

This report is based upon the findings of two rounds of surveys done in Punjab, in June and September respectively. The sample size comprised of 323 respondents in the first round, and 1492 respondents in the second round, split between both rural and urban spaces (48-52 split).