If optimism could be banked, Pakistan would be rich—it seemingly has oodles of it, possessing an inane ability to recover quickly from major setbacks with a resilience that is often unfounded. Having suspiciously (and miraculously) tackled the wrath of the coronavirus, remaining almost insulated from an all-out breakout that has happened across other major populations; Pakistan is once again gaining confidence.
Gallup’s Pakistan Business Confidence Index found in its study conducted in Aug-20 that as lockdowns were lifted, businesses were “fairly confident” (16%) in the current scenario while respondents had “great confidence” in future business situations (58%). This is a major turnaround from the last time the survey was conducted in the midst of the pandemic where businesses were suffering from revenue losses and employees were being laid off or experiencing a sharp slash in their incomes.
As such, the survey demonstrably indicates that even at the time of conducting the survey, businesses were suffering. Quoting the report: “9 in 10 businesses in Q2 [were] affected adversely and most of these businesses report having felt revenue loss of at least 60 percent. With these revenue losses came employment lay-offs reported by at least 25 percent of the firms”. (The survey is based on 486 firms across the country).
Additionally, more than half of the businesses in the country believe Pakistan is headed in the right direction, according to this survey. Apparently, despite demand suppression and loss of jobs, businesses find the current interventions taken by the federal government to be sufficient and satisfactory.
Another survey conducted in Aug-20 by the Institute for Public Opinion Research found that 51 percent of the (2024) respondents were satisfied with the performance of the government to contain the spread of covid-19. This is a huge feather in the hat of the PTI government.
On the other side are the SBP’s business confidence surveys. Though business confidence had plummeted during the pandemic, even as the cases were peaking in Jun-20 with no end in visible sight, expected business confidence was improving. Expected employment within the survey is also getting better as businesses are looking at the pandemic in the rear-view mirror.
It appears that confidence has rebounded and surveyors like Gallup are signalling “cautious optimism” in the post-corona Pakistan, except for one thing. The country is not post-corona yet.
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