MOSCOW: Russian wheat exports will fall in July after a slow start to the harvest but will rise in later months when there will not be export quotas, IKAR and SovEcon agriculture consultancies said.
The world's largest wheat exporter, which competes with the European Union, Ukraine and others to supply Africa and the Middle East, began harvesting wheat late this year. Yields have been lower so far but are expected to climb. Russia's July wheat exports were expected to be 2 million tonnes, about 1 million tonnes lower than the same month a year ago, IKAR's Dmitry Rylko said.
Russian wheat exports might benefit from July to December due to a lower EU and Ukraine crop, SovEcon's Andrey Sizov said. The arrival of the Australian crop, expected to be large, and possible Russian Agriculture Ministry quotas from January could make Russian wheat less competitive in the first half of 2021, he said.
Russia's grain exports will not be subjected to quotas from July to December, the Agriculture Ministry has said, but it could impose limits from January to June after reviewing the amount of wheat left for domestic consumption in the autumn.
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